SI 2015 Forecasting & Empirical Methods

Jonathan H. Wright and Allan Timmermann, Organizers

July 7-10, 2015

Royal Sonesta Hotel

Conference Code of Conduct

Tuesday, July 7
8:30 am
8:30 am
Guillaume Chevillon, ESSEC Business School
Sophocles Mavroeidis, University of Oxford
Zhaoguo Zhan, Tsinghua University

Robust Inference in Structural VARs with Long-run Restrictions
9:15 am
9:15 am
Domenico Giannone, Amazon

Priors for the long run
10:30 am
10:30 am
Gianni Amisano, European Central Bank
Oreste Tristani, European Central Bank

Monetary Policy and Long-term Interest Rates
11:15 am
11:15 am
Marcelo Medeiros, PUC-Rio
Eduardo F. Mendes, University of New South Wales

L1-Regularization of High Dimensional Time Series Models with Flexible Innovations
Wednesday, July 8
8:30 am
8:30 am
Francis X. Diebold, University of Pennsylvania and NBER
Frank Schorfheide, University of Pennsylvania and NBER
Minchul Shin, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Real-Time Forecast Evaluation of DSGE Models with Stochastic Volatility
9:15 am
Andrew Patton, Duke University

Evaluating and Comparing Possibly Misspecified Forecasts
10:30 am
10:30 am
Philipp Hartmann, European Central Bank
Kirstin Hubrich, Austrian Central Bank, Deutsche Bundesbank (as of July 1)
Manfred Kremer, European Central Bank
Robert Tetlow, Federal Reserve Board

Melting Down: Systemic Financial Instability and the Macroeconomy
11:15 am
11:15 am
Daniele Bianchi, Queen Mary University of London
Monica Billio, Univesity Ca' Foscari of Venice
Roberto Casarin, University of Venice
Massimo Guidolin, Bocconi University

Modeling Contagion and Systemic Risk
Thursday, July 9
8:30 am
Michael D. Bauer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
James D. Hamilton, University of California, San Diego and NBER

Robust Bond Risk Premia
9:15 am
9:15 am
Drew D. Creal, University of Notre Dame
Jing Cynthia Wu, University of Notre Dame and NBER

Bond Risk Premia in Consumption Based Models
10:30 am
10:30 am
Tobias Adrian, International Monetary Fund
Richard Crump, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Erik Vogt, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Nonlinearity and Flight to Safety in the Risk-Return Trade-Off for Stocks and Bonds
11:15 am
11:15 am
Elmar Mertens, Deutsche Bundesbank
James Nason, North Carolina State University

Inflation and Professional Forecast Dynamics: An Evaluation of Stickiness, Persistence, and Volatility
Friday, July 10
8:30 am
8:30 am
Ralph Koijen, University of Chicago and NBER
Motohiro Yogo, Princeton University and NBER

An Equilibrium Model of Institutional Demand and Asset Prices
9:15 am
Mohammad Pesaran, University of Southern California
Raman Uppal, Edhec Business School
Paolo Zaffaroni, Imperial College London

Portfolio Choice under the APT with Model Misspecification
10:30 am
10:30 am
Viktor Todorov, Northwestern University
George Tauchen, Duke University

Jump Regressions
11:15 am
11:15 am
Prosper Dovonon, Concordia University
Nour Meddahi, Toulouse School of Economics

Bootstrapping High-Frequency Jump Tests