SI 2016 Forecasting & Empirical Methods

Jonathan H. Wright and Allan Timmermann, Organizers

July 12-15, 2016

Royal Sonesta Hotel

Conference Code of Conduct

Tuesday, July 12
8:30 am
Eben Lazarus, University of California, Berkeley
Daniel Lewis, University College London
James H. Stock, Harvard University and NBER
Mark W. Watson, Princeton University and NBER

HAR Inference: Kernel Choice, Size Distortions, and Power Loss
9:15 am
Lawrence DW. Schmidt, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Yinchu Zhu, University of Oregon

Quantile Spacings: A Simple Method for the Joint Estimation of Multiple Quantiles Without Crossing
10:30 am
Matteo Barigozzi, University of Bologna
Marco Lippi, Università di Roma, La Sapienza
Matteo Luciani, Amazon

Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Models for Large Datasets
11:15 am
Davide Pettenuzzo, Brandeis University

Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions
Wednesday, July 13
8:30 am
Sydney C. Ludvigson, New York University and NBER
Sai Ma, Federal Reserve Board
Serena Ng, Columbia University and NBER

Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?
9:15 am
Andrea Carriero, Queen Mary University of London
Todd Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Massimiliano Marcellino, Bocconi University

Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty and its Impact on the Economy
10:30 am
Mario Forni, Universita di Modena
Luca Gambetti, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona
Luca Sala, Bocconi University

VAR Information and the Empirical Validation of DSGE Models
11:15 am
Geert Bekaert, Columbia University
Eric Engstrom, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Andrey Ermolov, Fordham University

Macro Risks and Term Structure of Interest Rates
Thursday, July 14
8:30 am
Harrison Hong, Columbia University and NBER
Weikai Li, Singapore Management University
Jiangmin Xu, Peking University

Climate Risks and Market Efficiency
9:15 am
Christiane J.S. Baumeister, University of Notre Dame and NBER
Lutz Kilian, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices with an Application to Crude Oil
10:30 am
Martin M. Andreasen, Aarhus University
Jens Christensen, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Kevin Cook, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Simon Riddell

The TIPS Liquidity Premium
11:15 am
Simone Manganelli, European Central Bank

Asset Allocation with Judgment
11:15 am
Eric T. Swanson, University of California, Irvine and NBER

Measuring the Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance and Asset Purchases on Financial Markets
Friday, July 15
8:30 am
Emre Yoldas, Federal Reserve Board
Zeynep Senyuz, Federal Reserve Board

Financial Stress and Equilibrium Dynamics in Money Markets
9:15 am
Torben G. Andersen, Northwestern University and NBER
Nicola Fusari, Johns Hopkins University
Viktor Todorov, Northwestern University

The Pricing of Tail Risk and the Equity Premium: Evidence from International Option Markets
10:30 am
Mathias S. Kruttli, Indiana University

From Which Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models Can Investors Profit? Evidence from Model-Based Priors