Inflation in the COVID Era and Beyond

Laurence M. Ball and Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Organizers

May 16-17, 2024

Royal Sonesta Hotel, 40 Edwin H. Land Blvd., Cambridge, MA 02142

Conference Code of Conduct

Thursday, May 16
12:00 pm
Lunch, University BC Room
Meeting in Longfellow Room
1:00 pm
Welcome
1:15 pm
Alberto Binetti, Bocconi University
Francesco Nuzzi, Harvard University
Stefanie Stantcheva, Harvard University and NBER

People's Understanding of Inflation (slides)
Discussant: Robert J. Shiller, Yale University and NBER
2:15 pm
Giovanni L. Violante, Princeton University and NBER
Oreste Tristani, European Central Bank
Jiri Slacalek, European Central Bank
Gonzalo Paz Pardo, European Central Bank
Filippo Pallotti, University College London

Who Bears the Costs of Inflation? Euro Area Households and the 2021–22 Shock
Discussant: Klaus Adam, University of Mannheim
3:15 pm
Break
3:45 pm
Hassan Afrouzi, Columbia University and NBER
Saroj Bhattarai, University of Texas at Austin
Edson Wu, University of Texas at Austin

Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks Revisited: Theory and Evidence
Discussant: Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University
4:45 pm
Regis Barnichon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Adam Shapiro, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Phillips meets Beveridge (slides)
Discussant: Katharine G. Abraham, University of Maryland and NBER
5:45 pm
Adjourn
6:30 pm
Dinner, Bambara Restaurant, Hotel Marlowe, 25 Edwin H. Land Blvd, Cambridge
Friday, May 17
Meeting in Parkview Room
8:00 am
Breakfast
8:30 am
Alberto Cavallo, Harvard University and NBER
Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Bank of Canada

Price Discounts and Cheapflation During the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge (slides)
Discussant: Joseph S. Vavra, University of Chicago and NBER
9:30 am
S. Borağan Aruoba, University of Maryland and NBER
Thomas Drechsel, University of Maryland and NBER

The Long and Variable Lags of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated Price Indices (slides)
Discussant: Jonathan H. Wright, Johns Hopkins University and NBER
10:30 am
Break
11:00 am
Mai Chi Dao, International Monetary Fund
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, University of California, Berkeley and NBER
Daniel Leigh, International Monetary Fund
Prachi Mishra, International Monetary Fund

Understanding the International Rise and Fall of Inflation Since 2020
Discussant: Susanto Basu, Boston College and NBER
12:00 pm
Lunch, Charles Room A
12:45 pm
Carola Binder, Haverford College and NBER
Rupal Kamdar, Indiana University
Jane M. Ryngaert, University of Notre Dame

Partisan Expectations and COVID-Era Inflation
Discussant: Giorgio Topa, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
1:45 pm
Christina D. Romer, University of California, Berkeley and NBER
David H. Romer, University of California, Berkeley and NBER

Lessons from History for Successful Disinflation
Discussant: Donald Kohn, Brookings Institution
2:45 pm
Break
3:15 pm
Panel Discussion
Inflation: What We Have Learned, and What We Need to Know
Richard H. Clarida, Columbia University and NBER (Remarks)
N. Gregory Mankiw, Harvard University and NBER (Remarks)
Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs
4:30 pm
Closing Remarks & Adjourn