International Fragmentation, Supply Chains, and Financial Frictions

Pol Antràs, Sofía Bauducco, Linda S. Goldberg, and Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Organizers

March 1-2, 2023

FORMAT: 25 mins for paper presentation, 15 mins for the discussant, remaining time for Q&A.

Conference Code of Conduct

Tuesday, February 28
7:30 pm
Informal Dinner - Liguria Lastarria
Wednesday, March 1
8:30 am
Continental Breakfast
9:00 am
Opening Remarks, Linda S. Goldberg, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and NBER
Session 1: Policy Interactions in Trade and Finance
Session Chair: Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, University of Maryland and NBER
9:15 am

From Carry Trades to Trade Credit: Financial Intermediation by Non-Financial Corporations (slides)
Discussant: Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
10:15 am

The 2014 Russia Shock and its Effects on Italian Firms and Banks (slides)
Discussant: Georgia Bush, Banco de México
11:15 am
Break
11:45 am

Capital Controls and Free-Trade Agreements (slides)
Discussant: Juan Carlos Hallak, Universidad de Buenos Aires and CONICET
12:45 pm
Lunch
Session 2: Finance and Supply Chain Dynamics
Session Chair: Pol Antras, Harvard University and NBER
2:00 pm

Financial Crises and the Global Supply Chain: Evidence from Multinational Networks
Discussant: Rodrigo A. Wagner, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez
3:00 pm

Bound by Ancestors: Immigration, Credit Frictions, and Global Supply Chain Formation (slides)
Discussant: Shang-Jin Wei, Columbia University and NBER
4:00 pm
Break
4:30 pm

Supply Chain Resilience: Evidence from Indian Firms (slides)
Discussant: Federico Huneeus, Duke University
5:30 pm
Adjourn
7:30 pm
Reception and Dinner - Castillo Forestal
Thursday, March 2
8:45 am
Continental Breakfast
Session 3: Uncertainty and Fragmentation
Session Chair: Linda Goldberg, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and NBER
9:15 am

Supply Chain Risk: Changes in Supplier Composition and Vertical Integration
Discussant: Veronica Rappoport, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)
10:15 am

Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending
Discussant: Katharina Bergant, International Monetary Fund
11:15 am
Break
11:45 am

Trade Shocks and Credit Reallocation (slides)
Discussant: Miguel Acosta-Henao, Central Bank of Chile
12:45 pm
Lunch
Session 4: From Trade Shocks to Banking
Session Chair: Sofia Bauducco, Central Bank of Chile
2:00 pm

Domestic Credit, Trade Finance, and the Trade Tensions of 2016-18: A Prelude to International Fragmentation?
Discussant: Camila Casas, International Monetary Fund
3:00 pm

Escaping the Trade War: Finance and Relational Supply Chains in the Adjustment to Trade Policy Shocks
Discussant: José De Gregorio, Universidad de Chile
4:00 pm
Break
4:30 pm
Policy Panel on Fragmentation of Trade and Finance
Participants:
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, International Monetary Fund and NBER
Pablo García, Vice Governor, Central Bank of Chile
Elías Albagli, Central Bank of Chile
Moderator: Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, University of Maryland and NBER
6:00 pm
Adjourn
8:00 pm
Informal Dinner - Mestizo