International Fragmentation, Supply Chains, and Financial Frictions

Pol Antràs, Sofía Bauducco, Linda S. Goldberg, and Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Organizers

March 1-2, 2023

FORMAT: 25 mins for paper presentation, 15 mins for the discussant, remaining time for Q&A.

Conference Code of Conduct

Tuesday, February 28
7:30 pm
Informal Dinner - Liguria Lastarria
Wednesday, March 1
8:30 am
Continental Breakfast
9:00 am
Opening Remarks, Linda S. Goldberg, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and NBER
Session 1: Policy Interactions in Trade and Finance
Session Chair: Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, University of Maryland and NBER
9:15 am
Bryan Hardy, Bank for International Settlements
Felipe Saffie, University of Virginia

From Carry Trades to Trade Credit: Financial Intermediation by Non-Financial Corporations (slides)
Discussant: Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Federal Reserve Board
10:15 am
Stefano Federico, Bank of Italy
Giuseppe Marinelli, Bank of Italy
Francesco Palazzo, Bank of Italy

The 2014 Russia Shock and its Effects on Italian Firms and Banks (slides)
Discussant: Georgia Bush, Banco de México
11:15 am
11:45 am
Emile A. Marin, University of California, Davis
Simon P. Lloyd, Bank of England

Capital Controls and Free-Trade Agreements (slides)
Discussant: Juan Carlos Hallak, Universidad de Buenos Aires and CONICET
12:45 pm
Session 2: Finance and Supply Chain Dynamics
Session Chair: Pol Antras, Harvard University and NBER
2:00 pm
Sergi Basco, Universitat Barcelona
Giulia Felice, Politecnico Milano
Bruno Merlevede, Ghent University
Martí Mestieri, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Financial Crises and the Global Supply Chain: Evidence from Multinational Networks
Discussant: Rodrigo A. Wagner, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez
3:00 pm
Jaerim Choi, University of Hawaii at Manoa
Jay Hyun, HEC Montreal
Ziho Park, National Taiwan University

Bound by Ancestors: Immigration, Credit Frictions, and Global Supply Chain Formation (slides)
Discussant: Shang-Jin Wei, Columbia University and NBER
4:00 pm
4:30 pm
Gaurav Khanna, University of California, San Diego
Nicolas Morales, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, University of Texas at Austin and NBER

Supply Chain Resilience: Evidence from Indian Firms (slides)
Discussant: Federico Huneeus, Central Bank of Chile
5:30 pm
7:30 pm
Reception and Dinner - Castillo Forestal
Thursday, March 2
8:45 am
Continental Breakfast
Session 3: Uncertainty and Fragmentation
Session Chair: Linda Goldberg, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and NBER
9:15 am
Nuri Ersahin, Michigan State University
Mariassunta Giannetti, Stockholm School of Economics
Ruidi Huang, Southern Methodist University

Supply Chain Risk: Changes in Supplier Composition and Vertical Integration
Discussant: Veronica Rappoport, London School of Economics
10:15 am
Ricardo Correa, Federal Reserve Board
Julian di Giovanni, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Linda S. Goldberg, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and NBER
Camelia Minoiu, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending
Discussant: Katharina Bergant, International Monetary Fund
11:15 am
11:45 am
Fadi Hassan, Bank of Italy
Veronica Rappoport, London School of Economics
Stefano Federico, Bank of Italy

Trade Shocks and Credit Reallocation (slides)
Discussant: Miguel Acosta-Henao, Central Bank of Chile
12:45 pm
Session 4: From Trade Shocks to Banking
Session Chair: Sofia Bauducco, Central Bank of Chile
2:00 pm
Paula Margaretic, University Adolfo Ibañez
David N. Moreno, Central Bank of Chile

Domestic Credit, Trade Finance, and the Trade Tensions of 2016-18: A Prelude to International Fragmentation?
Discussant: Camila Casas, IMF
3:00 pm
Felipe Benguria, University of Kentucky
Felipe Saffie, University of Virginia

Escaping the Trade War: Finance and Relational Supply Chains in the Adjustment to Trade Policy Shocks
Discussant: Jose De Gregorio, Universidad de Chile
4:00 pm
4:30 pm
Policy Panel on Fragmentation of Trade and Finance
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, International Monetary Fund and NBER
Pablo García, Vice Governor, Central Bank of Chile
Elías Albagli, Central Bank of Chile
Moderator: Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, University of Maryland and NBER
6:00 pm
8:00 pm
Informal Dinner - Mestizo