Economics of Artificial Intelligence

Ajay K. Agrawal, Joshua S. Gans, Avi Goldfarb, and Catherine Tucker, Organizers

September 26-27, 2019

Intercontinental Hotel, 220 Bloor Street West, Toronto, ON Canada M5S 1T8

Conference Code of Conduct

Wednesday, September 25
6:30 pm
Group Dinner at Signatures Restaurant - Intercontinental Hotel
Thursday, September 26
8:30 am
Continental Breakfast - Barclay Room, Second Floor
9:00 am
9:15 am
Matthew Jackson, Stanford University
Zafer Kanik

How Automation that Substitutes for Labor Affects Production Networks, Growth, and Income Inequality
Discussant: Pascual Restrepo, Boston University and NBER
10:00 am
David Autor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER
Anna M. Salomons, Utrecht University

New Frontiers: The Evolving Content and Geography of New Work in the 20th Century
Discussant: Patrick Francois, University of British Columbia
10:45 am
11:00 am
Session: Regulation
Yong Suk Lee, University of Notre Dame
Benjamin Larsen, Copenhagen Business School
Michael Webb, Stanford University
Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar, California Supreme Court and Stanford University

How Would AI Regulation Change Firms' Behavior? Evidence from Thousands of Managers
Jack A. Clark, OpenAI
Gillian Hadfield, University of Toronto

Regulatory Markets for AI Safety
Bo Cowgill, Columbia University
Fabrizio Dell'Acqua, Harvard Business School

Biased Programmers? Or Biased Data? A Field Experiment about Algorithmic Bias
Discussant: Carl Shapiro, University of California, Berkeley and NBER
12:00 pm
Lunch - Barclay Room, Second Floor

Presentation by Steve Jurvetson, Future Ventures
Accelerating Change — Iterating to Superintelligence

Presentation by Abraham Heifets, CEO, Atomwise, Inc.
Portfolios of Discovery: Increasing Success and Reducing Variance in Drug Discovery with AI

Discussion by Scott Stern, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER/ followed by Open Discussion
2:00 pm
Susan Athey, Stanford University and NBER
Juan Camilo Castillo, University of Pennsylvania and NBER
Bharat Chandar, Stanford University

Service Quality in the Gig Economy: Empirical Evidence about Driving Quality at Uber
Discussant: Matt Taddy, Amazon
2:45 pm
Daniel Bjorkegren, Brown University
Joshua Blumenstock, University of California at Berkeley

Manipulation-Proof Machine Learning
Discussant: Mitsuru Igami, Yale University
3:30 pm
Marcus Dillender, Vanderbilt University and NBER
Eliza Forsythe, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

White Collar Technological Change: Evidence from Job Posting Data
Discussant: Betsey Stevenson, University of Michigan and NBER
4:15 pm
4:30 pm
Session: Applications of Machine Learning
Andreas Fuster, EPFL and Swiss Finance Institute
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Yale University and NBER
Tarun Ramadorai, Imperial College London
Ansgar Walther, Imperial College London

Predictably Unequal? The Effects of Machine Learning on Credit Markets
Julian Tszkin Chan, Bates White Economic Consulting
Weifeng Zhong, Mercatus Center at George Mason University

Reading China: Predicting Policy Change with Machine Learning
Mathieu Aubry, École des Ponts ParisTech
Roman Kräussl, University of Luxembourg
Gustavo Manso, University of California at Berkeley
Christophe Spaenjers, University of Colorado Boulder

Machine Learning, Human Experts, and the Valuation of Real Assets
Discussant: Mara Lederman, University of Toronto
5:30 pm
Panel Discussion on Task-Based and Systems Models
with Timothy Bresnahan, David Autor, and Pascual Restrepo
6:00 pm
6:30 pm
Group Dinner
Gardiner Museum
111 Queens Park, Toronto

Presentation by Jack A. Clark, OpenAI
Friday, September 27
8:00 am
Continental Breakfast - Barclay Room, Second Floor
8:30 am
Prasanna Tambe, University of Pennsylvania
Lorin Hitt, University of Pennsylvania
Erik Brynjolfsson, Stanford University and NBER
Daniel Rock, University of Pennsylvania

IT, AI and the Growth of Intangible Capital
Discussant: Diego A. Comin, Dartmouth College and NBER
9:15 am
Session: AI and Innovation
Daniel Rock, University of Pennsylvania

Engineering Value: The Returns to Technological Talent and Investments in Artificial Intelligence
Joel M. Klinger, Nesta
Juan C. Mateos-Garcia, Nesta
Konstantinos M. Stathoulopoulos, Nesta

Deep Learning, Deep Change? Mapping the Development of the Artificial Intelligence General Purpose Technology
Ajay K. Agrawal, University of Toronto and NBER
John McHale, National University of Ireland
Alexander Oettl, Georgia Institute of Technology and NBER

Artificial Intelligence, Scientific Discovery, and Commercial Innovation
Discussant: Timothy F. Bresnahan, Stanford University
10:15 am
10:45 am
Edward L. Glaeser, Harvard University and NBER
Andrew Hillis, Harvard University
Hyunjin Kim, INSEAD
Scott Duke Kominers, Harvard University
Michael Luca, Harvard University and NBER

How Does Compliance Affect the Returns to Algorithms? Evidence from Boston's Restaurant Inspectors
Discussant: Amalia R. Miller, University of Virginia and NBER
11:30 am
Session: What Happens to Workers?
Jill Grennan, Santa Clara University
Roni Michaely, University of Hong Kong

Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work: Evidence from Analysts
James Bessen, Boston University
Maarten Goos, Utrecht University
Anna M. Salomons, Utrecht University
Wiljan van den Berge, Utrecht University

Automatic Reaction – What Happens to Workers at Firms that Automate?
Seth G. Benzell, Chapman University
Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Boston University and NBER
Guillermo LaGarda, Inter-American Development Bank
Jeffrey D. Sachs, Columbia University and NBER

Robots Are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement (slides)
Discussant: Jason Furman, Harvard University
12:30 pm
Lunch - Barclay Room, Second Floor

Presentation by Tomi Poutanen, Layer 6
2:00 pm
Robert P. Bartlett III, University of California at Berkeley
Adair Morse, University of California, Berkeley and NBER
Richard Stanton, University of California at Berkeley
Nancy Wallace, University of California at Berkeley

Consumer-Lending Discrimination in the FinTech Era
Discussant: Stefan Hunt, Competition and Markets Authority
2:45 pm
Jonathan Gruber, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER
Benjamin R. Handel, University of California, Berkeley and NBER
Jonathan T. Kolstad, University of California, Berkeley and NBER

Managing Intelligence: Skilled Experts and AI in Markets for Complex Products
Discussant: Ariel Dora Stern, Harvard University
3:30 pm
Wrap Up and Closing Remarks
3:35 pm

Regular sessions: 20 mins presenter, 10 mins discussion, 15 mins Q&A.
Short paper sessions: 10 mins presenter, 15 mins discussion, 15 mins Q&A.