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The Rate of Return to Research and Development Investments
Organized by Craig Garthwaite and Timothy Simcoe
Supported by
Coefficient Giving and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
October 2, 2026
Advancing Earth and Space Sciences, 2000 Florida Ave. N.W., Washington DC
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Friday, October 2
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8:00 am
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Continental Breakfast
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8:30 am
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Introductions
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8:45 am
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Literature Review and Research Agenda(Spreadsheet and Slides)
Craig Garthwaite, Northwestern University and NBER
Timothy Simcoe, Boston University and NBER
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9:15 am
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Growth is Getting Harder to Find, Not Ideas
Teresa C. Fort, Dartmouth College and NBER
Nathan Goldschlag, Economic Innovation Group
Jack Liang, Temple University
Nikolas Zolas, U.S. Department of State
Peter K. Schott, Yale University and NBER
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Where Do Technology Shocks Come From? Public Funding and Private Ownership
(slides)
Andrea Gazzani, Banca d'Italia
Joseba Martinez, London Business School
Filippo Natoli, Banca d'Italia
Paolo Surico, London Business School
Discussant:
Andrew J. Fieldhouse, Texas A&M University
( slides)
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10:30 am
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Break
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10:45 am
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The Economic Value of Science
Xugan Chen, Yale University
Ernest Liu, Princeton University and NBER
Song Ma, Yale University and NBER
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11:05 am
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A Knowledge-Space Approach to Estimating Spillovers from Basic Research: Evidence from Genomics
Matteo Tranchero, University of Pennsylvania
Charlie Guthmann, National Center for Biotechnology Information, NIH
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11:25 am
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Tracking the Geographic Footprint of R&D: New National and State-Level Measures of R&D Production and Investment
(slides)
Christian Awuku-Budu, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Ledia Guci, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Gabriel Medeiros, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Dirk F. van Duym, Bureau of Economic Analysis
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11:45 am
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Expert Survey Results PresentedEzra Karger, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the Forecasting Research Institute
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2:00 pm
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Who Captures the Value of Public Innovation?
Eugenie Dugoua, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)
Todd D. Gerarden, Cornell University
Kyle R. Myers, Harvard University and NBER
Jacquelyn Pless, University of Toronto
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The Private Value of Innovating for the Government
Ashish Arora, Duke University and NBER
Sharon Belenzon, Duke University and NBER
Larisa C. Cioaca, Tulane University
Elia Ferracuti, Duke University
Discussant:
Scott Stern, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER
( slides)
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3:15 pm
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Break
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3:30 pm
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Optimal Innovation Policy and the Reallocation of Public Funds: Evidence from China’s Pharmaceutical Reforms
Panle Jia Barwick, University of Wisconsin - Madison and NBER
Ashley T. Swanson, University of Wisconsin - Madison and NBER
Hongyuan Xia, Cornell University
Tianli Xia, University of Rochester
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Retreating from Science: The Long-Run Effects of the 1970s U.S. Military Disinvestment from University Research
Daniel P. Gross, Duke University and NBER
Bhaven N. Sampat, Johns Hopkins University and NBER
Hansen Zhang, Duke University
Discussant:
Lee G. Branstetter, Carnegie Mellon University and NBER
( slides)
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4:45 pm
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Adjourn
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