Fertility and Declining Population Growth in High-Income Countries
Organized by Melissa Schettini Kearney and Phillip B. Levine
Supported by the Smith Richardson Foundation
May 22-23, 2025
Royal Sonesta Hotel, 40 Edwin H. Land Boulevard, Cambridge, MA
Format: Long Presentations: 25 minutes each author, 15 minutes discussant, 15 minutes general discussion. Egg Timer Presentations: 10 minutes uninterrupted
Thursday, May 22
10:00 AM
Continental Breakfast
10:30 AM
Opening Remarks
10:40 AM

Would a Larger Population Increase Long-Run Incomes?

Maya R. Eden, Brandeis University
Kevin J. Kuruc, University of Texas at Austin

E Pluribus, Pauciores (Out of Many, Fewer): Diversity and Birth Rates

David H. Solomon, Boston College
11:06 AM
Discussant: Michael Geruso, University of Texas at Austin
12:00 PM
Lunch
Egg Timer Papers
1:00 PM

One Cohort at a Time: Young Workers’ Outcomes and the Declining Gender Pay Gap

Jaime Arellano-Bover, Yale University
Nicola Bianchi, Northwestern University and NBER
Salvatore Lattanzio, Banca d'Italia
Matteo Paradisi, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF)
1:10 PM

Bachelors Without Bachelor’s: Gender Gaps in Education and Declining Marriage Rates

Clara Chambers, Yale University
Benjamin Goldman, Cornell University
Joseph Winkelmann, Harvard University
1:20 PM

The Demand for Grandchildren: Children as Family Public Goods

Janice Compton, University of Manitoba
Robert A. Pollak, Washington University in St. Louis and NBER
1:30 PM

Closing the Door, Shrinking the Cradle: Immigration Quotas and Fertility Decline

Rania Gihleb, University of Pittsburgh
Osea Giuntella, University of Pittsburgh and NBER
Patrick M. Szurkowski, University of Pittsburgh
1:40 PM

Fertility and Childlessness Across Birth Cohorts (slides)

Melissa Schettini Kearney, University of Notre Dame and NBER
Phillip B. Levine, Wellesley College and NBER
1:50 PM
Break
2:10 PM

Social Institutions and Low Birth Rates

Christine Ho, Singapore Management University
Yutao Wang, Singapore Management University

Field of Study and Future Fertility

Adam Altmejd, Stockholm University
John Eric Humphries, Yale University and NBER
Juanna S. Joensen, University of Chicago
Gregory Veramendi, Royal Holloway, University of London (RH)
2:36 PM
Discussant: Amalia Miller, University of Virginia
3:50 PM

Negotiating Parenthood: An Account of the Changing Relationship between Women's Work and Fertility

Matthias Doepke, Northwestern University
Fabian Kindermann, University of Regensburg

Gendered Family Preferences: Higher Education and Intergenerational Divergence in Eight Low Fertility Countries

Chen Peng, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi
Alicia Adsera, Princeton University
Arnstein Aassve, Bocconi University
Letizia Mencarini, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi
4:16 PM
Discussant: Elizabeth Ananat, Barnard College
5:10 PM
Adjourn
6:00 PM

Dinner, Bambara located at the Marlowe Hotel
Friday, May 23
8:30 AM
Continental Breakfast
9:00 AM

Housing and Fertility

Janis Skrastins, University of Utah
Dimas M. Fazio, National University of Singapore
Bernadus Doornik, Banco Central do Brasil
Tarun Ramadorai, Imperial College London

Did the Modern Mortgage Set the Stage for the U.S. Baby Boom?

Lisa J. Dettling, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Melissa Schettini Kearney, University of Notre Dame and NBER
9:26 AM
Discussant: David Weil, Brown University
10:20 AM
Break
10:40 AM

Intergenerational Impact of Birth-control Policies on Fertility: The Role of Norms

Rufei Guo, Wuhan University
Lin Lin, Renmin University of China
Junjian Yi, Peking University
Hanyu Zhu, Peking University

Sibling Peer Effects in Fertility (slides)

Qinyou Hu, Aalto University
Kristiina Huttunen, Aalto University
Lars Lefgren, Brigham Young University and NBER
Riley Wilson, Brigham Young University
11:06 AM
Discussant: Bruce Sacerdote, Dartmouth College
12:00 PM
Lunch
1:00 PM

Religion and Demography: Papal Influences on Fertility

Lakshmi Iyer, University of Notre Dame
Paloma Lopez de mesa Moyano, Emory University
Vivek S. Moorthy, Florida State University

Movies, Censorship, and the Sexual Revolution

Tianyi Wang, University of Toronto and NBER
Hui Ren Tan, National University of Singapore
1:26 PM
Discussant: Osea Guintella, University of Pittsburgh
2:20 PM
Closing Remarks
2:30 PM
Adjourn