Economics of Artificial Intelligence

Ajay K. Agrawal, Joshua S. Gans, Avi Goldfarb, and Catherine Tucker, Organizers

September 26-27, 2019

Intercontinental Hotel
Willard Room, Second Floor
220 Bloor Street West
Toronto, ON Canada M5S 1T8

Conference Code of Conduct

Wednesday, September 25
6:30 pm
Group Dinner at Signatures Restaurant - Intercontinental Hotel
Thursday, September 26
8:30 am
Continental Breakfast - Barclay Room, Second Floor
9:00 am
9:15 am
Matthew Jackson, Stanford University
Zafer Kanik, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

How Automation that Substitutes for Labor Affects Production Networks, Growth, and Income Inequality
Discussant: Pascual Restrepo, Boston University and NBER
10:00 am
David Autor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER
Anna M. Salomons, Utrecht University

New Frontiers: The Evolving Content and Geography of New Work in the 20th Century
Discussant: Patrick Francois, University of British Columbia
10:45 am
11:00 am
Session: Regulation
Yong Suk Lee, Stanford University
Benjamin Larsen, Copenhagen Business School
Michael Webb, Stanford University
Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar, California Supreme Court and Stanford University

How Would AI Regulation Change Firms' Behavior? Evidence from Thousands of Managers
Jack A. Clark, OpenAI
Gillian Hadfield, University of Toronto

Regulatory Markets for AI Safety
Bo Cowgill, Columbia University
Fabrizio Dell'Acqua, Columbia University

Biased Programmers? Or Biased Data? A Field Experiment about Algorithmic Bias
Discussant: Carl Shapiro, University of California, Berkeley and NBER
12:00 pm
Lunch - Barclay Room, Second Floor

Presentation by Steve Jurvetson, Future Ventures
Accelerating Change — Iterating to Superintelligence

Presentation by Abraham Heifets, CEO, Atomwise, Inc.
Portfolios of Discovery: Increasing Success and Reducing Variance in Drug Discovery with AI

Discussion by Scott Stern, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER/ followed by Open Discussion
2:00 pm
Susan Athey, Stanford University and NBER
Juan Camilo Castillo, University of Pennsylvania
Bharat Chandar, Stanford University

Service Quality in the Gig Economy: Empirical Evidence about Driving Quality at Uber
Discussant: Matt Taddy, Amazon
2:45 pm
Daniel Bjorkegren, Brown University
Joshua Blumenstock, University of California at Berkeley

Manipulation-Proof Machine Learning
Discussant: Mitsuru Igami, Yale University
3:30 pm
Marcus Dillender, University of Illinois at Chicago and NBER
Eliza Forsythe, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

White Collar Technological Change: Evidence from Job Posting Data
Discussant: Betsey Stevenson, University of Michigan and NBER
4:15 pm
4:30 pm
Session: Applications of Machine Learning
Andreas Fuster, Swiss National Bank
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Yale University
Tarun Ramadorai, Imperial College London
Ansgar Walther, Imperial College London

Predictably Unequal? The Effects of Machine Learning on Credit Markets
Julian Tszkin Chan, Bates White Economic Consulting
Weifeng Zhong, Mercatus Center at George Mason University

Reading China: Predicting Policy Change with Machine Learning
Mathieu Aubry, École des Ponts ParisTech
Roman Kräussl, University of Luxembourg
Gustavo Manso, University of California at Berkeley
Christophe Spaenjers, HEC Paris

Machine Learning, Human Experts, and the Valuation of Real Assets
Discussant: Mara Lederman, University of Toronto
5:30 pm
Panel Discussion on Task-Based and Systems Models
with Timothy Bresnahan, David Autor, and Pascual Restrepo
6:00 pm
6:30 pm
Group Dinner
Gardiner Museum
111 Queens Park, Toronto

Presentation by Jack A. Clark, OpenAI
Friday, September 27
8:00 am
Continental Breakfast - Barclay Room, Second Floor
8:30 am
Prasanna Tambe, University of Pennsylvania
Lorin Hitt, University of Pennsylvania
Erik Brynjolfsson, Stanford University and NBER
Daniel Rock, University of Pennsylvania

IT, AI and the Growth of Intangible Capital
Discussant: Diego A. Comin, Dartmouth College and NBER
9:15 am
Session: AI and Innovation
Daniel Rock, University of Pennsylvania

Engineering Value: The Returns to Technological Talent and Investments in Artificial Intelligence
Joel M. Klinger, Nesta
Juan C. Mateos-Garcia, Nesta
Konstantinos M. Stathoulopoulos, Nesta

Deep Learning, Deep Change? Mapping the Development of the Artificial Intelligence General Purpose Technology
Ajay K. Agrawal, University of Toronto and NBER
John McHale, National University of Ireland
Alexander Oettl, Georgia Institute of Technology and NBER

Artificial Intelligence, Scientific Discovery, and Commercial Innovation
Discussant: Timothy F. Bresnahan, Stanford University and NBER
10:15 am
10:45 am
Edward L. Glaeser, Harvard University and NBER
Andrew Hillis, Harvard University
Hyunjin Kim, Harvard University
Scott Duke Kominers, Harvard University
Michael Luca, Harvard University and NBER

How Does Compliance Affect the Returns to Algorithms? Evidence from Boston's Restaurant Inspectors
Discussant: Amalia R. Miller, University of Virginia and NBER
11:30 am
Session: What Happens to Workers?
Jill Grennan, Duke University
Roni Michaely, Cornell Tech

Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work: Evidence from Analysts
James Bessen, Boston University
Maarten Goos, London School of Economics
Anna M. Salomons, Utrecht University
Wiljan van den Berge, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

Automatic Reaction – What Happens to Workers at Firms that Automate?
Seth G. Benzell, Chapman University
Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Boston University and NBER
Guillermo LaGarda, Inter-American Development Bank
Jeffrey D. Sachs, Columbia University and NBER

Robots Are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement (slides)
Discussant: Jason Furman, Harvard University
12:30 pm
Lunch - Barclay Room, Second Floor

Presentation by Tomi Poutanen, Layer 6
2:00 pm
Robert P. Bartlett III, University of California at Berkeley
Adair Morse, University of California, Berkeley and NBER
Richard Stanton, University of California at Berkeley
Nancy Wallace, University of California at Berkeley

Consumer-Lending Discrimination in the FinTech Era
Discussant: Stefan Hunt, Competition and Markets Authority
2:45 pm
Jonathan Gruber, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER
Benjamin R. Handel, University of California, Berkeley and NBER
Jonathan T. Kolstad, University of California, Berkeley and NBER

Managing Intelligence: Skilled Experts and AI in Markets for Complex Products
Discussant: Ariel Dora Stern, Harvard University
3:30 pm
Wrap Up and Closing Remarks
3:35 pm

Regular sessions: 20 mins presenter, 10 mins discussion, 15 mins Q&A.
Short paper sessions: 10 mins presenter, 15 mins discussion, 15 mins Q&A.

Participant List

Ajay K. AgrawalUniversity of Toronto and NBER
Anna AiroldiNew York University
Ryan T. AllenHarvard University
Susan AtheyStanford University and NBER
David AutorMassachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER
Sarah BanaStanford University
Sandra BarbosuAlfred P. Sloan Foundation
Seth G. BenzellChapman University
James BessenBoston University
Daniel BjorkegrenBrown University
Joel N. BlitUniversity of Waterloo
Timothy F. BresnahanStanford University and NBER
Kevin A. BryanUniversity of Toronto
Erik BrynjolfssonStanford University and NBER
Emilio CalvanoUniversity of Bologna
Julian Tszkin ChanBates White Economic Consulting
Qingqing ChenUniversity of Pennsylvania
Ruyu ChenCornell University
Edmund ClarkVector Institute for Artificial Intelligence
Jack A. ClarkOpenAI
Iain M. CockburnBoston University and NBER
Diego A. CominDartmouth College and NBER
Bo CowgillColumbia University
Fabrizio Dell'AcquaColumbia University
Hélène DesmaraisUniversity of Montreal
Luise EisfeldToulouse School of Economics
Chiara FarronatoHarvard University and NBER
Mohsen ForoughifarUniversity of Toronto
Ramin ForouzandehUniversity of Toronto
Eliza ForsytheUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Patrick FrancoisUniversity of British Columbia
Jason FurmanHarvard University
Alberto GalassoUniversity of Toronto and NBER
Nancy GalliniUniversity of British Columbia
Joshua S. GansUniversity of Toronto and NBER
Raffi GarciaRensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Laura V. GatiBoston College
Marzyeh GhassemiUniversity of Toronto
Daniel GoetzUniversity of Toronto
Samuel GoldbergNorthwestern University
Avi GoldfarbUniversity of Toronto and NBER
Zheng GongUniversity of Toronto
Daniel GoroffAlfred P. Sloan Foundation
Sanjana GoswamiUniversity of California at Irvine
Jill GrennanDuke University
Gillian HadfieldUniversity of Toronto
Abraham HeifetsAtomwise, Inc.
Ariel Herbert-VossHarvard University
Geoffrey HintonUniversity of Toronto
Lorin HittUniversity of Pennsylvania
Stefan HuntCompetition and Markets Authority
Mitsuru IgamiYale University
Moein JavadianUniversity of Toronto
Genevieve JurvetsonFetcher
Steve JurvetsonFuture Ventures
Zafer KanikMassachusetts Institute of Technology
Ritt KeeratiColumbia University
Hyunjin KimHarvard University
Timo KleinUniversity of Amsterdam
Samsun KnightBrown University
Jonathan T. KolstadUniversity of California, Berkeley and NBER
Anton KorinekUniversity of Virginia and NBER
Rahul LadhaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania
Guillermo LaGardaInter-American Development Bank
Benjamin LarsenCopenhagen Business School
Mara LedermanUniversity of Toronto
Yong Suk LeeStanford University
Gregory LewisMicrosoft Research
Shannon X. LiuUniversity of Toronto
Bowen LouUniversity of Pennsylvania
Wei LuUniversity of Toronto
Michael LucaHarvard University and NBER
David MadrasUniversity of Toronto
Malgorzata MajewskaToulouse School of Economics
Gustavo MansoUniversity of California at Berkeley
Juan C. Mateos-GarciaNesta
Kristina McElheranUniversity of Toronto
John McHaleNational University of Ireland
Jeanine Miklos-ThalUniversity of Rochester
Amalia R. MillerUniversity of Virginia and NBER
Alex V. MoehringMassachusetts Institute of Technology
Felix S. MontagLMU Munich
Adair MorseUniversity of California, Berkeley and NBER
Emily OehlsenUber
Alexander OettlGeorgia Institute of Technology and NBER
Georgios PetropoulosMassachusetts Institute of Technology
Tomi PoutanenLayer 6
Xincheng QiuUniversity of Pennsylvania
Karthik RajkumarStanford University
Pascual RestrepoBoston University and NBER
Daniel RockUniversity of Pennsylvania
Anna M. SalomonsUtrecht University
Amir SaririUniversity of Toronto
Scott D. SchankeUniversity of Minnesota
Robert SeamansNew York University
Hammad ShaikhUniversity of Toronto
Carl ShapiroUniversity of California, Berkeley and NBER
Rahul SinghMassachusetts Institute of Technology
Rahul P. SinhaGreater Greater Washington
Katherine A. StapletonUniversity of Oxford
Ariel Dora SternHarvard University
Scott SternMassachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER
Betsey StevensonUniversity of Michigan and NBER
Matt TaddyAmazon
Prasanna TambeUniversity of Pennsylvania
Shibin TangUniversity of Toronto
Florenta TeodoridisUniversity of Southern California
Daniel TreflerUniversity of Toronto and NBER
Catherine TuckerMassachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER
Eray TurkelStanford University
Hal R. VarianGoogle
Kaushik VasudevanYale University
Alicia von SchenkGoethe University Frankfurt
Ansgar WaltherImperial College London
Michael WebbStanford University
Ruoxi XieUniversity of Toronto
Masahiro YoshidaWashington University in St. Louis
Michal ZatorUniversity of Notre Dame
Huiyan ZhangCarnegie Mellon University
Weifeng ZhongMercatus Center at George Mason University