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NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC.

Measuring and Modeling Health Care Costs

Ana Aizcorbe, Colin Baker, Ernst Berndt, and David Cutler, Organizers

October 18-19, 2013

L'Enfant Plaza Hotel
Monet Room 1 & 2
480 L'Enfant Plaza, SW
Washington, DC

PROGRAM

Participant List

Friday, October 18:

8:00 am

Continental Breakfast

8:30 am

Introduction/Welcome

Chair: David Cutler, Harvard University and NBER

8:45 am

Murray Aitken, IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics
Ernst Berndt, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER
Barry Bosworth, Brookings Institution
Iain Cockburn, Boston University and NBER
Richard Frank, Harvard University and NBER
Michael Kleinrock, IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics
Bradley Shapiro, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
The Regulation of Prescription Drug Competition and Market Responses: Patterns in Prices and Sales Following Loss of Exclusivity

Discussant: Marshall Reinsdorf, Bureau of Economic Analysis


9:30 am


Brian Chansky, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Corby Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Ronjoy Raichoudhary, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Measuring Output and Productivity in Private Hospitals

Discussant:
Nathan Wilson, Federal Trade Commission
If authors cannot participate, Nathan Wilson will both present and discuss paper

10:15 am

Break


10:45 am


Didem Bernard, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality
Yuriy Pylypchuk, Georgetown Public Policy Institute
Thomas Selden, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality
The Distribution of Public Spending for Health Care in the United States in 2010

Discussant:
Fredric Blavin, Urban Institute
If authors cannot participate, Fredric Blavin will both present and discuss paper

11:30 am

Rena Conti, University of Chicago
Ernst Berndt, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER
Firm Entry, Exit and Price Competition in the Market for Multisource Specialty Drugs, 2006-2012

Discussant: Marta Wosinska, Food and Drug Administration
If Ms. Wosinska cannot participate, Judith Hellerstein (University of Maryland and NBER) will be the discussant

12:15 pm

Chris Stomberg, Bates White Economic Consulting
Drug Pricing, Reimbursement, and Drug Shortages

Discussant: David Kreling, University of Wisconsin

1:00 pm

Lunch Renoir Room


Chair: Colin Baker, National Institute of Health


2:00 pm


Armando Franco, University of California at Berkeley
Dana Goldman, University of Southern California and NBER
Adam Leive, University of Pennsylvania
Daniel McFadden, University of California at Berkeley and NBER
A Cautionary Tale in Comparative Effectiveness Research: Pitfalls and Perils of Observational Data Analysis

Discussant: David Meltzer, University of Chicago and NBER

2:45 pm

Break


3:15 pm


Anne Hall, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Tina Highfill, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Calculating DiseaseBased Medical Care Expenditure Indexes for Medicare Beneficiaries: A Comparison of Method and Data Choices

Discussant: Richard Frank, Harvard University and NBER

4:00 pm

Pinar Karaca-Mandic, University of Minnesota and NBER
Jean Abraham, University of Minnesota
Kosali Simon, Indiana University and NBER
Roger Feldman, University of Minnesota
Going into the Affordable Care Act: Measuring the Size, Structure and Performance of the Individual and Small Group Markets for Health Insurance

Discussant:
Richard Kronick, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality
If Mr. Kronick cannot participate, David Cutler (Harvard University and NBER) will be the discussant

4:45 pm

CRIW Membership Meeting

5:15 pm

Adjourn


Saturday, October 19:

8:00 am

Continental Breakfast

Chair: Ana Aizcorbe, Bureau of Economic Analysis


8:30 am


David Cutler, Harvard University and NBER
A Health Account for the Elderly

Discussant:
Barry Bosworth, Brookings Institution


9:15 am


Abe Dunn, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Eli Liebman, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Adam Shapiro, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Defining Disease Episodes and the Effects on the Components of Expenditure Growth

Discussant: William Marder, Truven Health

10:00 am

Break


10:30 am


Frank Lichtenberg, Columbia University and NBER
The Impact of Biomedical Knowledge Accumulation on Mortality: A Bibliometric Analysis of Cancer Data

Discussant: Colin Baker, National Institute of Health


11:15 am


Matilde Mas, IVIE and University of Valencia
Paul Schreyer, OECD
Measuring Health Services in the National Accounts: An International Perspective

Discussant: Steven Landefeld, Bureau of Economic Analysis


12:00 pm


Colin Baker, National Institute of Health
Ralph Bradley, Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Simultaneous Effects of Obesity, Insurance Choice, and Medical Visit Choice on Healthcare Costs

Discussant: Neeraj Sood, University of Southern California and NBER

12:45 pm

Lunch - Renoir Room


Chair: Ernst Berndt, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER


1:45 pm


Laurence Baker, Stanford University and NBER
Kate Bundorf, Stanford University and NBER
Anne Royalty, Indiana University
Measuring Physician Practice Competition Using Medicare Data

Discussant: Rena Conti, University of Chicago

2:30 pm

Break


3:00 pm


Jacob Glazer, Boston University
Thomas McGuire, Harvard University and NBER
Julie Shi, Harvard University
Risk Adjustment of Health Plan Payments to Correct Inefficient Plan Choice from Adverse Selection

Discussant: Jonathan Kolstad, University of Pennsylvania and NBER


3:45 pm


Hitoshi Shigeoka, Simon Fraser University
The Effect of Patient Cost Sharing on Utilization, Health and Risk Protection

Discussant: Louise Sheiner, Federal Reserve Board

4:30 pm

Adjourn




Format:
20 minutes for authors; 12-13 minutes for discussants; 12-13 minutes remaining time for Q&A from the floor.