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National Bureau of Economic Research

 

NBER Meeting on “Economics of Commodity Markets”

 

Kenneth Singleton and Wei Xiong, Organizers

 

SIEPR

Gunn Building

Koret Taube-Room 120

366 Galvez Street

Stanford, CA 94305

 

October 27, 2012

 

PROGRAM

 

Saturday, October 27

8:00 am

Continental breakfast

8:30-9:40

Financialization of Commodities: What Do We Know?

Effects of Index-Fund Investing on Commodity Futures Prices

James Hamilton, University of California at Dan Diego and NBER 

Cynthia Wu, University of Chicago

New Evidence on the Financialization of Commodity Markets

Brian J. Henderson, George Washington University

Neil D. Pearson and Li Wang, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Discussant: Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan

9:40-10:30

Financialization of Commodities: Theoretical Perspectives

Feedback Effects of Commodity Futures Prices

Michael Sockin, Princeton University

Wei Xiong, Princeton University and NBER

A Model of Financialization of Commodities

Suleyman Basak and Anna Pavlova, London Business School

10:30-11:00

Break

11:00-12:00

What can We Learn from the Commodity Prices?

Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?

Domenico Ferraro, Duke University

Kenneth S. Rogoff, Harvard University and NBER

Barbara Rossi, Duke University

Can Markets Discipline Government Agencies? Evidence from the Weather Derivatives Market

Amiyatosh Purnanandam and Daniel Weagley, University of Michigan

12:00-1:20

Lunch and Panel Discussion (tentative)

Severin Borenstein, University of California at Berkeley and NBER

Andrei Kirilenko, Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Arun Majumdar, Department of Energy

Sheridan Titman, University of Texas at  Austin and NBER

1:30-2:30

Commodity Prices, Monetary Policies, and Local Economies

Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Fluctuations

Martin Bodenstein, Asian Development Bank

Luca Guerrieri, Federal Reserve Board

Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan

The Local Economic Effects of Commodity Booms and Busts in Modern America

Hunt Allcott, New York University and NBER

Daniel Keniston, Yale University

2:30-2:50

Break

2:50-4:00

Commodity Bubbles and Storage

Bubbles in Prices of Exhaustible Resources

Boyan Jovanovic, New York University and NBER

Demand Effects and Speculation in Oil Markets: Theory and Evidence

Eyal Dvir, Boston College

Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University and NBER

Discussant: Chester Spatt, Carnegie Mellon University and NBER

4:00-4:20

Break

4:20-5:20

Commodity Risk

Dynamic Jump Intensities and Risk Premiums in Crude Oil Futures and Options Markets

Peter Christoffersen, University of Toronto

Kris Jacobs and Bingxin Li, University of Houston

The Price of Oil Risk

Steven D. Baker and Bryan R. Routledge, Carnegie Mellon University

6:30 pm

Dinner, Indo Restaurant (formerly Straits Café)

3295 El Camino Real

Palo Alto, CA

 

 

10/22/12