Ross School of Business
University of Michigan
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
Institutional Affiliation: University of Michigan
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|September 2019||Asset Pricing with Fading Memory|
with Stefan Nagel: w26255
Building on evidence that lifetime experiences shape individuals' macroeconomic expectations, we study asset prices in an economy in which a representative agent learns with fading memory about unconditional mean endowment growth. With IID fundamentals, constant risk aversion, and memory decay calibrated to microdata, the model generates a high and strongly counter-cyclical objective equity premium, while the subjective equity premium is virtually constant. Consistent with this theory, experienced payout growth (a weighted average of past growth rates) is negatively related to future stock market excess returns and subjective expectations errors in surveys, and positively to analyst forecasts of long-run earnings growth.