NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Sumedha Gupta

Department of Economics
Indiana University-Purdue
University Indianapolis
425 University Blvd.
Indianapolis, IN 46202

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis

NBER Working Papers and Publications

June 2020Back to Business and (Re)employing Workers? Labor Market Activity During State COVID-19 Reopenings
with Wei Cheng, Patrick Carlin, Joanna Carroll, Felipe Lozano Rojas, Laura Montenovo, Thuy D. Nguyen, Ian M. Schmutte, Olga Scrivner, Kosali I. Simon, Coady Wing, Bruce Weinberg: w27419
We study the effect of state reopening policies on a large set of labor market indicators through May 2020 to: (1) understand the recent increase in employment using longitudinal as well as cross-sectional data, (2) assess the likely trajectory of reemployment going forward, and (3) investigate the strength of job matches that were disrupted by COVID-19. Estimates from event studies and difference-in-difference regressions suggest that some of the recent increases in employment activity, as measured by cellphone data on work-related mobility, internet searches related to employment, and new and continuing unemployment insurance claims, were likely related to state reopenings, often predating actual reopening dates somewhat. We provide suggestive evidence that increases in employment stem f...
May 2020Effects of Social Distancing Policy on Labor Market Outcomes
with Laura Montenovo, Thuy D. Nguyen, Felipe Lozano Rojas, Ian M. Schmutte, Kosali I. Simon, Bruce A. Weinberg, Coady Wing: w27280
This paper examines the impact of the social distancing policies states adopted between March and April of 2020 in response to the COVID-19 epidemic. These actions, together with voluntary social distancing, appear to have reduced the rate of new COVID-19 cases and deaths, but raised concerns about the costs experienced by workers and businesses. Estimates from difference-in-difference models that leverage cross-state variation in the timing of business closures and stay-at-home mandates suggest that the employment rate fell by about 1.7 percentage points for every extra 10 days that a state experienced a stay-at-home mandate during the period March 12-April 12, 2020; select business closure laws were associated with similar employment effects. Our estimates imply that about 40% of the 12...
Impacts of State Reopening Policy on Human Mobility
with Thuy D. Nguyen, Martin Andersen, Ana Bento, Kosali I. Simon, Coady Wing: w27235
This study quantifies the effect of state reopening policies on daily mobility, travel, and mixing behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic. We harness cell device signal data to examine the effects of the timing and pace of reopening plans in different states. We quantify the increase in mobility patterns during the reopening phase by a broad range of cell-device-based metrics. Soon (four days) after reopening, we observe a 6% to 8% mobility increase. In addition, we find that temperature and precipitation are strongly associated with increased mobility across counties. The mobility measures that reflect visits to a greater variety of locations responds the most to reopening policies, while total time in vs. outside the house remains unchanged. The largest increases in mobility occur in stat...
April 2020Tracking Public and Private Responses to the COVID-19 Epidemic: Evidence from State and Local Government Actions
with Thuy D. Nguyen, Felipe Lozano Rojas, Shyam Raman, Byungkyu Lee, Ana Bento, Kosali I. Simon, Coady Wing: w27027
This paper examines the determinants of social distancing during the COVID-19 epidemic. We classify state and local government actions, and we study multiple proxies for social distancing based on data from smart devices. Mobility fell substantially in all states, even ones that have not adopted major distancing mandates. There is little evidence, for example, that stay-at-home mandates induced distancing. In contrast, early and information-focused actions have had bigger effects. Event studies show that first case announcements, emergency declarations, and school closures reduced mobility by 1-5% after 5 days and 7-45% after 20 days. Between March 1 and April 11, average time spent at home grew from 9.1 hours to 13.9 hours. We find, for example, that without state emergency declarations, ...
 
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