NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Paul Ma

Carlson School of Management
University of Minnesota
321 19th Ave S.
Minneapolis, MN 55455

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Institutional Affiliation: University of Minnesota

NBER Working Papers and Publications

October 2018The Limits (and Human Costs) of Population Policy: Fertility Decline and Sex Selection in China under Mao
with Kimberly Singer Babiarz, Grant Miller, Shige Song: w25130
The vast majority of China’s fertility decline predates the famous One Child Policy – and instead occurred under its predecessor, the Later, Longer, Fewer (LLF) fertility control policy. In this paper, we first study LLF’s contribution to marriage and fertility behavior, finding that the policy reduced China’s total fertility rate by about 0.9 births per woman, explaining only 28% of China’s modern fertility decline. Given son preference, we then consider the parallel issue of sex selection, which also emerged prior to the One Child Policy (when prenatal selection was not technologically feasible). We find that LLF increased the use of male-biased fertility stopping rules from 3.25% to 6.3% of couples – and that it contributed to the early emergence of postnatal neglect of girls in modern ...
 
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