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style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Authors, please upload your paper <a href="http://www.nber.org/confsubmit/backend/form?id=SI16EFFE">here</a>. <br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:1'> <td width=678 style='width:508.5pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC.<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:2'> <td width=678 style='width:508.5pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>SI 2016 Forecasting &amp; Empirical Methods <br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:3'> <td width=678 style='width:508.5pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Allan Timmermann and Jonathan H. Wright, Organizers<br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:4'> <td width=678 style='width:508.5pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>July 12-15, 2016 <br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:5'> <td width=678 style='width:508.5pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;tab-stops:.5in 1.0in'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Royal <span class=SpellE>Sonesta</span> Hotel<br> Longfellow Room<br> 40 Edwin Land Boulevard<br> Cambridge, Massachusetts<br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:6;mso-yfti-lastrow:yes'> <td width=678 style='width:508.5pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;mso-outline-level: 2'><b><u><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>PROGRAM</span></u></b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> </table> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellpadding=0 width=678 style='width:508.5pt; mso-cellspacing:1.5pt;mso-yfti-tbllook:1184;mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:0;mso-yfti-firstrow:yes'> <td width=674 colspan=2 style='width:505.5pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Tuesday, July 12<br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:1'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>8:00 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Coffee and Pastries<br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:2'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>8:30 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Daniel Lewis, Harvard University<br> <span class=SpellE>Eben</span> Lazarus, Harvard University<br> James H. Stock, Harvard University and NBER<br> Mark W. Watson, Princeton University and NBER<br> </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Lazarus_Lewis_Stock_Watson.pdf"><i>HAR Inference: Kernel Choice, Size Distortions, and Power Loss </i></a></span><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]></span></i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:3'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>9:15 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Lawrence DW. Schmidt, University of Chicago<br> <span class=SpellE>Yinchu</span> Zhu, University of California at San Diego<br> </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Schmidt_Zhu.pdf"><i>Quantile <span class=SpellE>Spacings</span>: A Simple Method for the Joint Estimation of Multiple Quantiles Without Crossing </i></a></span><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]></span></i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:4'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>10:00 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Break<br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:5'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>10:30 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Matteo <span class=SpellE>Barigozzi</span>, London School of Economics and Political Science<br> Marco Lippi, <span class=SpellE>Universit<span style='font-family:"Microsoft Himalaya"'>/</span>span</span>&gt; di Roma, La Sapienza<br> Matteo <span class=SpellE>Luciani</span>, Federal Reserve Board of Governors<br> </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Barigozzi_Lippi_Luciani.pdf"><i>Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Models for Large Datasets </i></a></span><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]></span></i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:6'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>11:15 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span class=SpellE><span style='font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Davide</span></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language:EN-US'> <span class=SpellE>Pettenuzzo</span>, Brandeis University<br> Gary Koop, University of Strathclyde<br> Dimitris <span class=SpellE>Korobilis</span>, University of Glasgow, Adam Smith Business School<br> </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Pettenuzzo.pdf"><i>Bayesian Compressed Vector <span class=SpellE>Autoregressions</span> </i></a></span><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]></span></i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:7'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>12:00 n<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Lunch and Adjourn<br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:8'> <td width=674 colspan=2 style='width:505.5pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Wednesday, July 13<br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:9'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>8:00 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Coffee and Pastries<br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:10'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>8:30 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Sydney C. <span class=SpellE>Ludvigson</span>, New York University and NBER<br> Sai Ma, New York University<br> Serena Ng, Columbia University and NBER<br> </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="http://www.sydneyludvigson.com/s/ucc.pdf"><i>Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response? </i></a></span><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]></span></i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:11'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>9:15 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Andrea <span class=SpellE>Carriero</span>, Queen Mary University of London<br> Todd Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland<br> Massimiliano <span class=SpellE>Marcellino</span>, </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Bocconi University</span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><br> </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Carriero_Clark_Marcellino.pdf"><i>Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty and its Impact on the Economy </i></a><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:12'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>10:00 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Break<br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:13'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>10:30 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Mario <span class=SpellE>Forni</span>, <span class=SpellE>Universita</span> di Modena<br> Luca <span class=SpellE>Gambetti</span>, <span class=SpellE>Universitat</span> <span class=SpellE>Autonoma</span> de Barcelona<br> Luca Sala, Bocconi University<br> </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Forni_Gambetti_Sala.pdf"><i>VAR Information and the Empirical Validation of DSGE Models </i></a></span><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]></span></i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:14'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>11:15 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Geert <span class=SpellE>Bekaert</span>, Columbia University and NBER<br> Eric <span class=SpellE>Engstrom</span>, Federal Reserve Board of Governors<br> Andrey <span class=SpellE>Ermolov</span>, Fordham University<br> <i><a href="Bekaert_Engstrom_Ermolov.pdf">Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates</a><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]></i><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:15'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>12:00 n<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Lunch and Adjourn<br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:16'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>6:00 pm<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Clambake<br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:17'> <td width=674 colspan=2 style='width:505.5pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Thursday, July 14<br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:18'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>8:00 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Coffee and Pastries<br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:19'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>8:30 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Harrison Hong, Princeton University and NBER<br> <span class=SpellE>Weikai</span> Li, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology<br> <span class=SpellE>Jiangmin</span> Xu, Peking University<br> </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Hong_Li_Xu.pdf"><i>Climate Risks and Market Efficiency </i></a></span><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]></span></i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:20'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>9:15 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Christiane J.S. <span class=SpellE>Baumeister</span>, University of Notre Dame<br> Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan<br> <i><a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Baumeister_Kilian.pdf">A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices with an Application to Crude Oil</a><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]></i><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:21'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>10:00 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Break<br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:22'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>10:30 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Martin M. <span class=SpellE>Andreasen</span>, Aarhus University<br> Jens Christensen, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco<br> Kevin Cook, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco<br> Simon Riddell, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco<br> </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Andreasen_Christensen_Cook_Riddell.pdf"><i>The TIPS Liquidity Premium </i></a></span><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]></span></i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:23'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>11:15 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Eric T. Swanson, University of California at Irvine and NBER<br> </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Swanson.pdf"><i>Measuring the Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance and Asset Purchases on Financial Markets </i></a></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:24'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>12:00 n<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Lunch and Adjourn<br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:25'> <td width=674 colspan=2 style='width:505.5pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Friday, July 15<br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:26'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>8:00 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Coffee and Pastries<br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:27'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>8:30 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span class=SpellE><span style='font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Emre</span></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language:EN-US'> <span class=SpellE>Yoldas</span>, Federal Reserve Board<br> <span class=SpellE>Zeynep</span> <span class=SpellE>Senyuz</span>, Federal Reserve Board<br> </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Yoldas_Senyuz.pdf"><i>Financial Stress and Equilibrium Dynamics in Money Markets </i></a></span><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]></span></i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:28'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>9:15 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Torben G. Andersen, Northwestern University and NBER<br> Nicola <span class=SpellE>Fusari</span>, Johns Hopkins University<br> Viktor <span class=SpellE>Todorov</span>, Northwestern University<br> </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Andersen_Fusari_Todorov.pdf"><i>The Pricing of Tail Risk and the Equity Premium: Evidence from International Option Markets </i></a></span><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language: EN-US'><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]></span></i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:29'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>10:00 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Break<br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:30'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>10:30 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Mathias S. <span class=SpellE>Kruttli</span>, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System<br> <i><a href="Kruttli.pdf">From Which Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models Can Investors Profit? Evidence from Model-Based Priors</a><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]></i><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:31'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>11:15 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Simone <span class=SpellE>Manganelli</span>, European Central Bank<br> </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Manganelli.pdf"><i>Asset Allocation with Judgment </i></a></span><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]></span></i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:32;mso-yfti-lastrow:yes'> <td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>12:00 n<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Lunch and Adjourn<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> </table> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> </div> </body> </html>