NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC.

 

SUMMER INSTITUTE 2010

 

NBER Economic Fluctuations and Growth

Working Group on Forecasting & Empirical Methods in Macroeconomics & Finance

 

Mark Watson and Kenneth West, Organizers

 

July 13 - 16, 2010

 

Royal Sonesta Hotel

Charles Suite B

40 Edwin H. Land Boulevard

Cambridge, Massachusetts

 

PROGRAM

 

TUESDAY, JULY 13:

 

 

8:00 am

Coffee and Pastries

 

 

 

Econometric Theory

 

 

8:30 am

Andrew Ang, Columbia University and NBER

 

Dennis Kristensen, Columbia University

 

Testing Conditional Factor Models

 

 

9:30 am

Break

 

 

9:45 am

Guillaume Chevillon, ESSEC Business School

 

Sophocles Mavroeidis, Brown University

 

Adaptive Learning and Long Memory

 

 

10:45 am

Break

 

 

11:00 am

Raffaella  Giacomini, University College London

 

Giuseppe Ragusa, Luiss University

 

Estimation of Moment-Based Models with Latent Variables

 

 

12:00 pm

Lunch and Adjourn

 

 

WEDNESDAY, JULY 14:

 

 

8:00 am

Coffee and Pastries

 

 

 

Finance/Asset Pricing

 

 

8:30 am

Garland Durham and Yangho Park, University of Colorado

 

Beyond Stochastic Volatility and Jumps in Returns and Volatility

 

 

9:30 am

Break

 

 

9:45 am

Carlo Favero, Arie E. Gozluklu and Andrea Tamoni, Bocconi University

 

Demographic Trends the Dividend/Price Ratio and the Predictability of Long-Run Stock Market Returns

 

 

10:45 am

Break

 

 

11:00 am

Kristoffer Nimark, CREI

 

Speculative Dynamics in the Term Structure of Interest Rates

 

 

12:00 pm

Lunch and Adjourn

 

 

6:00 pm

Clambake Harvard Faculty Club, 20 Quincy Street, Cambridge, MA

 

 

THURSDAY, JULY 15:

 

 

 

VARs

 

 

8:00 am

Coffee and Pastries

 

 

8:30 am

Domenico Giannone, ECARES - Université Libre de Bruxelles

 

Michele Lenza, European Central Bank

 

Giorgio Primiceri, Northwestern University and NBER

 

Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions

 

 

9:30 am

Break

 

 

9:45 am

Hyungsik Moon, University of Southern California

 

Frank Schorfheide, University of Pennsylvania and NBER

 

Eleonora Granziera and Mihye Lee, University of Southern California

 

Inference for VARs Identified with Sign Restrictions

 

 

10:45 am

Break

 

 

11:00 am

Harald Uhlig, University of Chicago and NBER

 

Pooyan Amir, European Central Bank

 

Measuring the Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: A Bayesian FAVAR Approach with Sign Restriction

 

 

12:00 pm

Lunch and Adjourn

 

 

FRIDAY, JULY 16:

 

 

 

Inflation

 

 

8:00 am

Coffee and Pastries

 

 

8:30 am

Guenter W. Beck, Goethe University

 

Kirstin Hubrich, European Central Bank

 

Massimiliano Marcellino, European University Institute

 

On the importance of sectoral shocks for price-setting

 

 

9:30 am

Break

 

 

9:45 am

Harrison Hong, Princeton University

 

Motohiro Yogo, University of Pennsylvania and NBER

 

Commodity Market Interest, Inflation, and Asset Prices

 

 

10:45 am

Break

 

 

11:00 am

Bharat Trehan, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

 

Survey Measures of Expected Inflation and the Inflation Process

 

 

12:00 pm

Lunch and Adjourn