Friday, July 11

8:00 am

Coffee and Pastries

8:30 am

Subjective Income Expectations and Household Debt Choices

Francesco D’Acunto, Georgetown University
Michael Weber, University of Chicago and NBER
Xiao Yin, University College London

9:30 am

Perceived Unemployment Risks over Business Cycles

Tao Wang, Bank of Canada
Xincheng Qiu, Peking University
William Du, Johns Hopkins University
Adrian Monninger, Johns Hopkins University

10:30 am

Break

11:00 am

Inflation Surprises and Election Outcomes

Jonathan Federle, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Cathrin C. Mohr, University of Bonn
Moritz Schularick, Kiel Institute for the World Economy

12:00 pm

Lunch

1:00 pm

Beliefs About the Economy are Excessively Sensitive to Household-Level Shocks: Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data

Dmitry Taubinsky, University of California, Berkeley and NBER
Luigi Butera, Copenhagen Business School
Matteo Saccarola, University of California, Berkeley
Chen Lian, University of California, Berkeley and NBER

2:00 pm

Break

2:30 pm

Learning Optimal Behavior Through Reasoning and Experiences

Cosmin L. Ilut, Duke University and NBER
Rosen Valchev, Boston College and NBER

3:30 pm

How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues

Marta Leva, Bocconi University
Nicola Gennaioli, Bocconi University
Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University
Andrei Shleifer, Harvard University and NBER

4:30 pm

Adjourn