SI 2025 Behavioral Macro
Organized by Andrew Caplin and Ulrike Malmendier
July 11, 2025
Royal Sonesta Hotel, Edwin H. Land Blvd., Cambridge, MA
Format: 30 minutes for presentations, 20 minutes for discussants, 10 minutes for general discussion and questions from the audience
Friday, July 11
8:00 am
Coffee and Pastries
8:30 am

Subjective Income Expectations and Household Debt Choices

Francesco D’Acunto, Georgetown University
Michael Weber, Purdue University and NBER
Xiao Yin, University College London

Discussant:
Eungik Lee, New York University
9:30 am

Perceived Unemployment Risks over Business Cycles (slides)

Tao Wang, Bank of Canada
Xincheng Qiu, Peking University
William Du, Johns Hopkins University
Adrian Monninger, Johns Hopkins University

Discussant:
Sasha Indarte, University of Pennsylvania
10:30 am
Break
11:00 am

Inflation Surprises and Election Outcomes

Jonathan Federle, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Cathrin C. Mohr, University of Bonn
Moritz Schularick, Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Discussant:
Carola Binder, University of Texas at Austin and NBER
12:00 pm
Lunch
1:00 pm

Learning Optimal Behavior Through Reasoning and Experiences

Cosmin L. Ilut, Duke University and NBER
Rosen Valchev, Boston College and NBER

Discussant:
Lawrence J. Jin, Cornell University and NBER
2:00 pm
Break
2:30 pm

Beliefs About the Economy are Excessively Sensitive to Household-Level Shocks: Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data

Dmitry Taubinsky, University of California, Berkeley and NBER
Luigi Butera, Copenhagen Business School
Matteo Saccarola, University of California, Berkeley
Chen Lian, University of California, Berkeley and NBER

Discussant:
Francesco D’Acunto, Georgetown University
3:30 pm

How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues

Marta Leva, Bocconi University
Nicola Gennaioli, Bocconi University
Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University
Andrei Shleifer, Harvard University and NBER

Discussant:
Andrew Caplin, New York University and NBER
4:30 pm
Adjourn