Tuesday, July 9
8:00 am
Coffee and Pastries
8:30 am

The Price of War

Jonathan Federle, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Andre Meier, Tudor Capital Europe LLP
Gernot Müller, University of Tübingen
Willi Mutschler, University of Tübingen
Moritz Schularick, Kiel Institute for the World Economy & Sciences Po

Discussant:
Valerie A. Ramey, Stanford University and NBER
9:30 am
Break
9:45 am

Quantitative Tightening Around the Globe: What Have We Learned?

Wenxin Du, Harvard University and NBER
Kristin Forbes, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER

Discussant:
Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Brown University and NBER
10:45 am
Break
11:00 am

Exchange Rate Disconnect and the Trade Balance

Pablo Cuba Borda, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Martin Bodenstein, Fedral Reserve Board
Nils Gornemann, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Ignacio Presno, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Discussant:
Federica Romei, University of Oxford
12:00 pm
Lunch and Adjourn
Wednesday, July 10
Joint meeting with MEFM in Ballroom A in the morning
8:00 am
Coffee and Pastries
8:30 am

EXIM’s Exit: The Real Effects of Trade Financing by Export Credit Agencies

Adrien Matray, Princeton University and NBER
Karsten Müller, National University of Singapore
Chenzi Xu, University of California, Berkeley and NBER
Poorya Kabir, National University of Singapore

Discussant:
Kilian Huber, University of Chicago and NBER
9:30 am
Break
9:45 am

A Macroeconomic Model of Central Bank Digital Currency

Mauricio Ulate, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Pascal Paul, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Jing Cynthia Wu, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and NBER

Discussant:
Todd Keister, Rutgers University
10:45 am
Break
11:00 am

The Economic Impact of Payment System Stress: Evidence from Russia

Dmitry Livdan, University of California, Berkeley
Norman Schurhoff, University of Lausanne
Vladimir Sokolov, ICEF Higher School of Economics

Discussant:
Thomas M. Eisenbach, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
12:00 pm
Lunch and Adjourn
International Finance and Macroeconomics Data Session follows in the afternoon in the Parkview Room
Thursday, July 11
8:00 am
Coffee and Pastries
8:30 am

A Currency Premium Puzzle

Tarek Alexander Hassan, Boston University and NBER
Thomas Mertens, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Jingye Wang, Renmin University of China

Discussant:
Hanno Lustig, Stanford University and NBER
9:30 am
Break
9:45 am

Expectations and the UIP Puzzles when Foresight is Limited

Seunghoon Na, Purdue University
Yinxi Xie, Indiana University Bloomington

Discussant:
Rosen Valchev, Boston College and NBER
10:45 am
Break
11:00 am

The Puzzling Behavior of Spreads during Covid

Stelios S. Fourakis, Johns Hopkins University
Loukas Karabarbounis, University of Minnesota and NBER

Discussant:
Laura Castillo-Martinez, Duke University
12:00 pm
Lunch and Adjourn
Friday, July 12
8:00 am
Coffee and Pastries
8:30 am

A Theory of Economic Coercion and Fragmentation

Christopher Clayton, Yale University and NBER
Matteo Maggiori, Stanford University and NBER
Jesse Schreger, Columbia University and NBER

Discussant:
Ricardo Reis, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)
9:30 am
Break
9:45 am

Heterogeneous Impact of the Global Financial Cycle

Aleksei Oskolkov, University of Chicago

Discussant:
Matias Moretti, University of Rochester
10:45 am
Break
11:00 am

Demographics and Real Interest Rates Across Countries and Over Time

Carlos Carvalho, Kapitalo Investimentos and PUC-Rio
Andrea Ferrero, University of Oxford
Fernanda Nechio, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Felipe R. Mazin, University of Pennsylvania

Discussant:
Moritz Lenel, Princeton University and NBER
12:00 pm
Lunch and Adjourn