
	Tuesday, July 11
8:00 am	Coffee and Pastries
	Instrumental Variables
8:30 am	Re-Thinking about Instrumental Variables Domenico Giannone, International Monetary Fund Michele Lenza, European Central Bank Giorgio Primiceri, Northwestern University and NBER
9:15 am	A Robust Test for Weak Instruments with Multiple Endogenous Regressors Daniel Lewis, University College London Karel Mertens, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
10:00 am	Break
	Instrumental Variables and Policy Shocks
10:30 am	Cross-Sectional Dynamics Under Network Structure: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications Marko Mlikota, Geneva Graduate Institute (IHEID)
11:15 am	Forecasting Algorithms for Causal Inference with Panel Data Jacob Goldin, University of Chicago and NBER Julian Nyarko, Stanford University Justin Young, Stanford University
12:00 pm	Lunch and Adjourn
	Wednesday, July 12
8:00 am	Coffee and Pastries
	Unit Roots and Nonstationary Time Series
8:30 am	Principal Component Analysis for Nonstationary Series (slides) James D. Hamilton, University of California, San Diego and NBER Jin Xi, University of California, San Diego
9:15 am	Spatial Unit Roots Ulrich Müller, Princeton University Mark W. Watson, Princeton University and NBER
10:00 am	Break
	Estimating the Impact of Fiscal and Carbon Tax Policies
10:30 am	Local Projections in Unstable Environments: How Effective is Fiscal Policy? Atsushi Inoue, Vanderbilt University Barbara Rossi, ICREA-Universitat Pompeu Fabra Yiru Wang, University of Pittsburgh
11:15 am	Climate Policy and the Economy: Evidence from Europe's Carbon Pricing Initiatives Diego R. Kaenzig, Northwestern University and NBER Maximilian Konradt, Geneva Graduate Institute
12:00 pm	Lunch and Adjourn
	Thursday, July 13
8:00 am	Coffee and Pastries
	Cross-Section of Stock Returns
8:30 am	Asset Embeddings Xavier Gabaix, Harvard University and NBER Ralph S. J. Koijen, University of Chicago and NBER Motohiro Yogo, Princeton University and NBER
9:15 am	Inflation Forecasting from Cross-Sectional Stocks (slides) Claire Yurong Hong, Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance Jun Pan, Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shiwen Tian, Central University of Finance and Economics
10:00 am	Break
	Survey Forecasts
10:30 am	A Bayesian Approach for Inference on Probabilistic Surveys Marco Del Negro, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Federico Bassetti, Politecnico Milano Roberto Casarin, University of Venice
11:15 am	Partisan Bias in Professional Macroeconomic Forecasts (slides) Aeimit Lakdawala, Wake Forest University Jane M. Ryngaert, University of Notre Dame Benjamin Kay, Federal Reserve Board Michael Futch, Civitech
12:00 pm	Lunch and Adjourn
	Friday, July 14
8:00 am	Coffee and Pastries
	Risk Factors
8:30 am	Beta-Sorted Portfolios Matias D. Cattaneo, Princeton University Richard K. Crump, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Weining Wang
9:15 am	The Role of Pricing Errors in Linear Asset Pricing Models with Strong, Semi-strong and Latent Factors M. Hashem Pesaran, University of Southern California Ron Smith, Birkbeck College
10:00 am	Break
	Measuring Risk and Performance in the Stock Market
10:30 am	Oil and the Stock Market Revisited: A Mixed Functional VAR Approach Hilde C. Bjornland, BI Norwegian Business School Yoosoon Chang, Indiana University Jamie L. Cross, BI Norwegian Business School
11:15 am	Is it Alpha or Beta? Decomposing Hedge Fund Returns When Models are Misspecified David Ardia, HEC Montreal Laurent Barras, University of Luxembourg Olivier Scaillet, University of Geneva Patrick Gagliardini, Università della Svizzera Italiana and Swiss Finance Institute
12:00 pm	Lunch and Adjourn

Participants

Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Torben G. Andersen, Northwestern University and NBER
David Ardia, HEC Montreal
Jonas E. Arias, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Regis Barnichon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Francesco Bianchi, Johns Hopkins University and NBER
Hilde C. Bjornland, BI Norwegian Business School
Michael W. Brandt, Duke University
Svetlana Bryzgalova, London Business School
Andrea Carriero, Queen Mary University of London
Carlos Carvalho, Kapitalo Investimentos and PUC-Rio
Matias D. Cattaneo, Princeton University
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Bank of England
Selma Chaker, Amazon
Yoosoon Chang, Indiana University
Todd Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Dean Croushore, University of Richmond
Richard K. Crump, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Marco Del Negro, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Francis DiTraglia, University of Oxford
Francis X. Diebold, University of Pennsylvania and NBER
Dobrislav Dobrev, Federal Reserve Board
Ross Doppelt, Johns Hopkins University
Thorsten Drautzburg, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Leland E. Farmer, University of Virginia
Carlo Favero, Università Bocconi
Neville Francis, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and NBER
Xavier Gabaix, Harvard University and NBER
Bulat N. Gafarov, University of California, Davis
Juan Angel García, European Central Bank
Domenico Giannone, International Monetary Fund
Nikolay Gospodinov, Federal Reserve Bank of Altanta
Refet S. Gürkaynak, Bilkent University
James D. Hamilton, University of California, San Diego and NBER
Ana Maria Herrera, University of Kentucky
Kazuhiro Hiraki, Bank of Japan
Claire Yurong Hong, Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance
Kilian Huber, University of Chicago and NBER
Kirstin Hubrich, Austrian Central Bank, Deutsche Bundesbank (as of July 1)
Atsushi Inoue, Vanderbilt University
Joao V. Issler, FGV
Ravi Jagannathan, Northwestern University and NBER
Òscar Jordà, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Benjamin Kay, Federal Reserve Board
Lynda Khalaf, Carleton University
Ralph S. J. Koijen, University of Chicago and NBER
Maximilian Konradt, Geneva Graduate Institute
Diego R. Känzig, Northwestern University and NBER
Burçin Kısacıkoğlu, Bilkent University
Aeimit Lakdawala, Wake Forest University
Eben Lazarus, University of California, Berkeley
Michele Lenza, European Central Bank
Martin Lettau, University of California, Berkeley and NBER
Daniel Lewis, University College London
Dake Li, Princeton University
Laura Liu, University of Pittsburgh
Prakash Loungani, Johns Hopkins University
Matteo Luciani, Amazon
Kurt G. Lunsford, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Massimiliano Marcellino, Bocconi University
Fulvia Marotta, University of Oxford

Christian Matthes, Indiana University
Michael McCracken, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Leonardo Melosi, University of Warwick
Elmar Mertens, Deutsche Bundesbank
Karel Mertens, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Geert Mesters, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Atif R. Mian, Princeton University and NBER
Anna Mikusheva, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Marko Mlikota, Geneva Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Emi Nakamura, University of California, Berkeley and NBER
James Nason, North Carolina State University
Andreas Neuhierl, Washington University in St. Louis
Serena Ng, Columbia University and NBER
Kristoffer Nimark, Cornell University
Jun Pan, Shanghai Jiao Tong University
David Papell, University of Houston
Andrew Patton, Duke University
Bradley Paye, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Markus Pelger, Stanford University and NBER
Elena Pesavento, Emory University
Davide Pettenuzzo, Brandeis University
Giorgio Primiceri, Northwestern University and NBER
Valerie A. Ramey, Stanford University and NBER
Alessandro Rebucci, Johns Hopkins University and NBER
Alberto G. Rossi, Georgetown University
Jane M. Ryngaert, University of Notre Dame
Riccardo Sabbatucci, Stockholm School of Economics
Olivier Scaillet, University of Geneva
Susannah Scanlan, Columbia University
Lawrence D.W. Schmidt, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Frank Schorfheide, University of Pennsylvania and NBER
Bernd Schwaab, European Central Bank
Tatevik Sekhposyan, Texas A&M University
Ekaterina Smetanina, University of Chicago
Ron Smith, Birkbeck College
Bent Sorensen, University of Houston
Dalibor Stevanovic, Université du Quebec a Montréal
Georg Strasser, European Central Bank
Eric T. Swanson, University of California, Irvine and NBER
Andrea Tamoni, Rutgers University
Anthony Tay, Singapore Management University
Alan M. Taylor, Columbia University and NBER
Shiwen Tian, Central University of Finance and Economics
Allan Timmermann, University of California, San Diego
Viktor Todorov, Northwestern University
Rossen Valkanov, University of California at San Diego
Herman Van Dijk, Erasmus University
Qian Wang, Vanguard
Weining Wang
Yiru Wang, University of Pittsburgh
Mark W. Watson, Princeton University and NBER
Michael Weber, University of Chicago and NBER
Kenneth D. West, University of Wisconsin-Madison and NBER
Christian K. Wolf, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER
Jonathan H. Wright, Johns Hopkins University and NBER
Jin Xi, University of California, San Diego
Zhijie Xiao, Boston College
Mao Ye, Cornell University and NBER
Motohiro Yogo, Princeton University and NBER
Justin Young, Stanford University
Guihai Zhao, Bank of Canada