Friday, July 13
8:00 am
Coffee and Pastries
8:30 am

Do You Know That I Know You Know...? Higher Order Beliefs in Survey Data

Olivier Coibion, University of Texas at Austin and NBER
Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley and NBER
Saten Kumar, AUT University
Jane M. Ryngaert, University of Notre Dame

Discussant:
Jennifer La'O, Columbia University and NBER
9:30 am

Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms' Subjective Beliefs

Ruediger Bachmann, University of Notre Dame
Kai Carstensen, Kiel University
Stefan Lautenbacher, Ifo Institute
Martin Schneider, Stanford University and NBER

Discussant:
Matthew D. Shapiro, University of Michigan and NBER
10:30 am
Break
11:00 am

Economic Agents as Imperfect Problem Solvers

Cosmin L. Ilut, Duke University and NBER
Rosen Valchev, Boston College and NBER

Discussant:
George-Marios Angeletos, Northwestern University and NBER
12:00 n
Lunch
1:00 pm

Simple Forecasting Heuristics that Make us Smart: Evidence from Different Market Experiments

Mikhail Anufriev, UTS Business School
Cars Hommes, Bank of Canada
Tomasz Makarewicz, Bielefeld University

Discussant:
John V. Leahy, University of Michigan and NBER
2:00 pm
Break
2:30 pm

Overpersistence Bias in Individual Income Expectations and its Aggregate Implications

Filip Rozsypal, Danmarks Nationalbank
Kathrin Schlafmann, Copenhagen Business School

Discussant:
Christopher D. Carroll, Johns Hopkins University and NBER
3:30 pm

Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations

Pedro Bordalo, University of Oxford
Nicola Gennaioli, Bocconi University
Yueran Ma, University of Chicago and NBER
Andrei Shleifer, Harvard University and NBER

Discussant:
Lars P. Hansen, University of Chicago and NBER
4:30 pm
Adjourn