Risk and Risk Management in the Agricultural Economy
Organized by Barry Goodwin and Tatyana Deryugina
Supported by the US Department of Agriculture
November 20-21, 2025
NBER, 2nd Floor, Feldstein Conference Room, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA

Thursday, November 20

2:00pm

Farmer Adoption and Payment Design Under Risk: Variability in Soil Carbon Sequestration Across Conservation Practices

Khyati Malik, National Bureau of Economic Research

Discussant:
Bruce McCarl

3:00pm

Physical Constraints and Appropriative Water Rights: Implications for the Efficiency of Water Markets

Joey Blumberg, Colorado State University
Chris Goemans, Colorado State University
Dale T. Manning, Univeristy of Tennessee

Discussant:
Nathan P. Hendricks, Kansas State University

4:00pm

Break

4:30pm

Optimal Insurance Scope: Theory and Evidence from US Crop Insurance

Adam Solomon, New York University
Sylvia Klosin, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Discussant:
Francis Annan, University of California, Berkeley and NBER

5:30pm

Adjourn

6:30pm

Dinner, Bambara Restaurant, Hotel Marlowe

Friday, November 21

8:30am

Breakfast

9:00am

The Hidden Harvest: Unintended Consequences of Subsidized Livestock Price Insurance

Michael K. Adjemian, University of Georgia
A. Ford Ramsey, University of Georgia

Discussant:
Sergio Lence, Iowa State University

10:00am

Real Subsidy, Imagined Harvest: Timing, Frictions, and the Myth of Livestock Risk Protection Arbitrage

Yifei Zhang, North Dakota State University
Andrew Keller Shawn Arita Sandro Steinbach, North Dakota State University

Discussant:
Alan Ker, Michigan State University

11:00am

Break

11:30am

Payments for Ecosystem Services Programs and Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture

Youngho Kim, University of Florida

Discussant:
Charles A. Taylor, Harvard University and NBER

1:30pm

Protect or Prepare? Crop Insurance and Adaptation in a Changing Climate

Marguerite Obolensky, Northwestern University

Discussant:
Marshall Burke, Stanford University and NBER

2:30pm

Measuring Water Misallocation in California

Will Rafey, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER

Discussant:
Ashok K. Mishra, Arizona State University

3:30pm

Break

4:00pm

Crop Failures from Temperature and Precipitation Shocks, Implications for U.S. Crop Insurance

Molly Sears, Michigan State University
Jeffrey Perloff, University of California, Berkeley
Wolfram Schlenker, Harvard University and NBER
Ximing Wu, Texas A&M University

Discussant:
Maximilian Auffhammer, University of California, Berkeley and NBER

5:00pm

Adjourn