Péter Hudomiet

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Institutional Affiliation: RAND Corporation

NBER Working Papers and Publications

October 2019The Effects of Job Characteristics on Retirement
with Michael D. Hurd, Andrew Parker, Susann Rohwedder: w26332
This paper presents results based on a survey fielded in the RAND American Life Panel that queried older workers about their current, desired, and expected job characteristics, and about how certain job characteristics would affect their retirement. Having access to flexible work hours was found to be the most consistent predictor of retirement expectations. For example, we estimated that the fraction of individuals working after age 70 would be 32.2% if all workers had flexible hours, while the fraction working would be 17.2% if none had the option of flexible hours. We further found that job stress, physical and cognitive job demands, the option to telecommute, and commuting times were also strong predictors of retirement expectations. By comparing workers’ current job characteristics wi...
August 2019The Effects of Job Characteristics on Retirement
with Michael D. Hurd, Andrew M. Parker, Susann Rohwedder
in Incentives and Limitations of Employment Policies on Retirement Transitions: Comparisons of Public and Private Sectors, Robert L. Clark and Joseph P. Newhouse, organizers
Along with data about actual, desired, and anticipated job characteristics, this paper uses a novel data element, the subjective conditional probability of working at age 70, to estimate the causal effects of job characteristics on retirement in the United States. Having flexible work hours is the most consistent predictor of retirement preferences and expectations: if all current workers had flexible hours, the fraction working at age 70 would be 0.322, but it would be just 0.172 if none had this option. Job stress, physical, and cognitive job demands, the option to telecommute, and commuting times were additional predictors of retirement expectations.
November 2018The Effect of Physical and Cognitive Decline at Older Ages on Job Mismatch and Retirement
with Michael D. Hurd, Susann Rohwedder, Robert J. Willis: w25229
Physical and cognitive abilities of older workers decline with age, which can cause a mismatch between abilities and job demands, potentially leading to early retirement. We link longitudinal Health and Retirement Study data to O*NET occupational characteristics to estimate to what extent changes in workers’ physical and cognitive resources change their work-limiting health problems, mental health, subjective probabilities of retirement, and labor market status. While we find that physical and cognitive decline strongly predict all outcomes, only the interaction between large-muscle resources and job demands is statistically significant, implying a strong mismatch at older ages in jobs requiring large-muscle strength. The effects of declines in fine motor skills and cognition are not stat...
July 2012Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data
with Robert J. Willis: w18258
Based on subjective survival probability questions in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), we use an econometric model to estimate the determinants of individual-level uncertainty about personal longevity. This model is built around the Modal Response Hypothesis (MRH), a mathematical expression of the idea that survey responses of 0, 50 or 100 percent to probability questions indicate a high level of uncertainty about the relevant probability. We show that subjective survival expectations in 2002 line up very well with realized mortality of the HRS respondents between 2002 and 2010. We show that the MRH model performs better than typically used models in the literature of subjective probabilities. Our model gives more accurate estimates of low probability events and it is able to predict...

Published: Hudomiet, Péter, and Robert Willis. 2013. "Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data." Decision Analysis, 10(2): 152-170. PMCID: PMC3882032. DOI. Abstract. citation courtesy of

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