NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Mark C. Freeman

School of Business and Economics
Loughborough University
Leiceistershire, UK LE11 3TU

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: Loughborough University

NBER Working Papers and Publications

August 2015Better Predictions, Better Allocations: Scientific Advances and Adaptation to Climate Change
with Ben Groom, Richard Zeckhauser: w21463
The initial hope for climate science was that an improved understanding of what the future might bring would lead to appropriate public policies and effective international climate agreements. Even if that hope is not realized, as now seems likely, scientific advances leading to a more refined assessment of the uncertainties surrounding the future impacts of climate change would facilitate more appropriate adaptation measures. Such measures might involve shifting modes or locales of production, for example. This article focuses on two broader tools: consumption smoothing in anticipation of future losses, and physical adaptation measures to reduce damages. It shows that informative signals on climate-change effects lead to better decisions in the use of each tool.

Published: Mark C. Freeman & Ben Groom & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 2015. "Better predictions, better allocations: scientific advances and adaptation to climate change," Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, vol 373(2055).

January 2015Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty: When is Good News Bad?
with Gernot Wagner, Richard J. Zeckhauser: w20900
Climate change is real and dangerous. Exactly how bad it will get, however, is uncertain. Uncertainty is particularly relevant for estimates of one of the key parameters: equilibrium climate sensitivity—how eventual temperatures will react as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations double. Despite significant advances in climate science and increased confidence in the accuracy of the range itself, the “likely” range has been 1.5-4.5°C for over three decades. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) narrowed it to 2-4.5°C, only to reverse its decision in 2013, reinstating the prior range. In addition, the 2013 IPCC report removed prior mention of 3°C as the “best estimate.” We interpret the implications of the 2013 IPCC decision to lower the bottom of the range and...

Published: Mark C. Freeman & Gernot Wagner & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 2015. "Climate sensitivity uncertainty: when is good news bad?," Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, vol 373(2055).

 
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