Giulio Fella

Queen Mary University of London
Mile End Road
London E1 4NS
United Kingdom

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliations: Queen Mary University of London and Centre for Macroeconomics - CFM and Institute for Fiscal Studies - IFS

NBER Working Papers and Publications

May 2019Family and Government Insurance: Wage, Earnings, and Income Risks in the Netherlands and the U.S.
with Mariacristina De Nardi, Marike G. Knoef, Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, Raun Van Ooijen: w25832
We document new facts on the dynamics of male wages and earnings, household earnings, and before- and after-tax income in the Netherlands and the United States. We find that, in both countries, earnings display rich dynamics, including substantial asymmetries and nonlinearities by age and previous earnings levels. Most of these dynamics, particularly in the Netherlands, are related to fluctuations in hours worked rather than in wages. Individual-level male wage and earnings risk is relatively high at the beginning and end of one’s working life, and for those in the lower and upper parts of the income distribution. In the Netherlands, government transfers are a major source of insurance. They have notable effects on the standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis of income changes. In the U.S...
February 2018Nonlinear Household Earnings Dynamics, Self-insurance, and Welfare
with Mariacristina De Nardi, Gonzalo Paz Pardo: w24326
Earnings dynamics are much richer than typically assumed in macro models with heterogeneous agents. This holds for individual-pre-tax and household-post-tax earnings and across administrative (Social Security Administration) and survey (Panel Study of Income Dynamics) data. We estimate two alternative processes for household after-tax earnings and study their implications using a standard life-cycle model. Both processes feature a persistent and a transitory component, but while the first one is the canonical linear process with stationary shocks, the second one has substantially richer earnings dynamics, allowing for age-dependence of moments, non-normality, and nonlinearity in previous earnings and age. Allowing for richer earnings dynamics implies a substantially better fit of the evolu...

Published: Mariacristina De Nardi & Giulio Fella & Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, 2020. "Nonlinear Household Earnings Dynamics, Self-Insurance, and Welfare," Journal of the European Economic Association, vol 18(2), pages 890-926. citation courtesy of

January 2016The Implications of Richer Earnings Dynamics for Consumption and Wealth
with Mariacristina De Nardi, Gonzalo Paz Pardo: w21917
Earnings dynamics are much richer than those typically used in macro models with heterogenous agents. This paper provides multiple contributions. First, it proposes a simple non-parametric method to model rich earnings dynamics that is easy to estimate and introduce in structural models. Second, it applies our method to estimate a nonparametric earnings process using two data sets: the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and a large, synthetic, data set that matches the dynamics of the U.S. tax earnings. Third, it uses a life cycle model of consumption to compare the consumption and saving implications of our two estimated processes to those of a standard AR(1). We find that, unlike the standard AR(1) process, our estimated, richer earnings process generates an increase in consumption inequalit...
November 2015Piketty's Book and Macro Models of Wealth Inequality
with Mariacristina De Nardi, Fang Yang: w21730
Piketty's book, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, discusses several factors affecting wealth inequality: rates of return on capital, output growth rates, tax progressivity, top income shares, and heterogeneity in saving rates and inheritances. This paper studies the role of various forces affecting savings in quantitative models of wealth inequality, discusses their successes and failures in accounting for the observed facts, and compares these model's implications with Piketty's conclusions.

Published: De Nardi, Mariacristina & Giulio , Fella & Yang, Fang, 2016. "Piketty’s Book and Macro Models of Wealth Inequality," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. citation courtesy of

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