Department of Marketing
Via Guglielmo Röntgen, 1
Institutional Affiliation: Universita' Bocconi
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|March 2020||Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties: Analyzing Text from Twitter|
with Francesco Giavazzi, Felix Iglhaut, Giacomo Lemoli: w26825
We study the role of perceived threats from cultural diversity induced by terrorist attacks and a salient criminal event on public discourse and voters' support for far-right parties. We first develop a rule which allocates Twitter users in Germany to electoral districts and then use a machine learning method to compute measures of textual similarity between the tweets they produce and tweets by accounts of the main German parties. Using the dates of the aforementioned exogenous events we estimate constituency-level shifts in similarity to party language. We find that following these events Twitter text becomes on average more similar to that of the main far-right party, AfD, while the opposite happens for some of the other parties. Regressing estimated shifts in similarity on changes in v...