SI 2026 Forecasting & Empirical Methods
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Ian Dew-Becker, Stefano Giglio, Pooya Molavi
Using Density Forecasts to Measure the Stability of Inflation Expectations -
Ed Manuel, Christian K. Wolf
Identifying Policy Causal Effects from Rule Changes -
Stefano DellaVigna, Eva Vivalt
Forecasting Social Science: Evidence from 100 Projects -
Anne L. Hansen, John J. Horton, Sophia Kazinnik, Daniela Puzzello, Ali Zarifhonarvar
Simulating the Survey of Professional Forecasters -
Pablo A. Guerron
Chronos-2: From Univariate to Universal Forecasting -
Kerry Y. Siani, Jinyuan Zhang
The Decision Window: How Budget Timing Shapes Fiscal Policy -
Jose Luis Lara Sanchez, Dalton Rongxuan Zhang
Anatomy of Subjective Macroeconomic Expectations -
Alessandro Casini, Adam McCloskey, Luca Rolla, Raimondo Pala
Dynamic Local Average Treatment Effects in Time Series -
Sophia Kazinnik, Tara M. Sinclair
FOMC In Silico: A Multi-Agent System for Monetary Policy Decision Modeling -
Francesco Bianchi, Do Q. Lee, Sydney C. Ludvigson, Sai Ma
The Prestakes of Stock Market Investing -
Regis Barnichon, Geert Mesters, Emi Nakamura, Jón Steinsson
Humble VARs -
Fabrizio Ghezzi, Allan Timmermann, Max Yang
Gauging Hourly Economic Activity in Your Neighborhood -
Martin Almuzara, Richard K. Crump, Dennis Kongoli, Gizem Koşar
Learning from Survey Density Forecasts -
Catherine Chen, Chen Gao, Jonathon Hazell, Lihua Lei, Chen Lian
Forecasting Inflation with Microdata: An Adaptive Machine Learning Approach -
Andrew Foerster, Andreas Hornstein, Pierre-Daniel Sarte, Mark W. Watson
The Past and Future of U.S. Structural Change: Compositional Accounting and Forecasting -
Ezra Karger, Otto Kuusela, Jason Abaluck, Kevin A. Bryan, Basil Halperin, Todd R. Jones, Connacher Murphy, Philip Trammell, Matt Reynolds, Dan Mayland
Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI
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