Economic Measurement in the 21st Century

Katharine Abraham, James Poterba, and Valerie Ramey, Organizers

Royal Sonesta Hotel, Cambridge MA

Sunday, July 17, 2016

12:30pm	Buffet Lunch
1:00pm	Welcome and Introductions
1:15pm	Using Third-Party Data to Improve Government Economic Statistics
	Ron Jarmin, Census Bureau
	Jack Kleinhenz, National Retail Federation and NABE
	Matthew Shapiro, University of Michigan and NBER
Motivation: Users of economic data are demanding more timely and detailed information, at the same time that it is becoming more difficult and more expensive to conduct household and business surveys. How can third-party data be used to improve the quality, coverage, scope and timeliness of core government economic statistics?
1:50pm	Quality Change and Price Measurement
	Alberto Cavallo, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER
	Erica Groshen, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Motivation: In the national accounts, real output generally is measured as nominal sales deflated by a price index. To the extent that available price indexes do not adequately account for changes in the quality of the goods and services that are being sold, real output will be mismeasured. Are there approaches that can be applied to better account for quality change in the price indexes used to construct the measures of real output in the national accounts?
2:25pm	Break
2:45pm	Accounting for Digital Products
	Charles Hulten, University of Maryland and NBER
	Marshall Reinsdorf, International Monetary Fund
Motivation: The U.S. economy is increasingly an information economy. In many cases, however, the consumption of digital products does not generate a monetary transaction. Standard national accounting methods may not capture the growing value of this consumption. Moreover, the value of investments in data may be poorly captured in the existing accounts. How can the value of information products best be incorporated into national economic accounts?
3:20pm	Intangibles
	Robert Hall, Stanford University and NBER
	Dan Sichel, Wellesley College and NBER
Motivation: Investment is increasingly focused on intangibles—computerized information, innovative property or economic competencies including employee training — rather than on physical plant and equipment. The importance of investment in intangibles has come to be widely recognized, but the data and conceptual underpinnings of existing measures are not fully developed. How can the measurement of investments in intangibles best be strengthened and incorporated into the national accounts?
3:55pm	Break
4:15pm	The Sharing Economy
	Jonathan Hall, Uber
	Larry Katz, Harvard University and NBER
Motivation: The use of digital technologies to, in the words of the 2016 Bean Commission “facilitate the purchase, hire, and sharing of assets and skills” has implications for the measurement of both output and labor market activity. To the extent that the sharing economy becomes more important over time, the measurement of nominal sales, prices, employment and income all may be affected. How can the statistical agencies best adapt their measurement framework to ensure that the contributions of the sharing economy are appropriately measured?
4:50pm	Outsourcing and Globalization
	Fatih Guvenen, University of Minnesota and NBER
	Susan Houseman, Upjohn Institute
Motivation: Outsourcing and globalization create significant challenges for the measurement of economic activity. Outsourcing may lead to mismeasurement of the factor inputs utilized by the contracting sector, with corresponding impacts on the measurement of productivity, as in the case of “factoryless production.” Tax considerations may affect where an international company books its investments and the transfer prices it employs, again leading to measurement distortions. What steps can the statistical agencies take to address the measurement challenges associated with outsourcing and globalization?
5:25pm	Closing Remarks and Next Steps
5:30pm	Adjourn