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style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Allan Timmermann and Jonathan H. Wright, Organizers<�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:4'> <�td width=678 style='width:508.5pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>July 12-15, 2016 <�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:5'> <�td width=678 style='width:508.5pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;tab-stops:.5in 1.0in'><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Royal <�span class=SpellE>Sonesta<�/span> Hotel<�br> Longfellow Room<�br> 40 Edwin Land Boulevard<�br> Cambridge, Massachusetts<�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�/span><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:6;mso-yfti-lastrow:yes'> <�td width=678 style='width:508.5pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;mso-outline-level: 2'><�b><�u><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>PROGRAM<�/span><�/u><�/b><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�/table> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�o:p>&nbsp;<�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellpadding=0 width=678 style='width:508.5pt; mso-cellspacing:1.5pt;mso-yfti-tbllook:1184;mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:0;mso-yfti-firstrow:yes'> <�td width=674 colspan=2 style='width:505.5pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Tuesday, July 12<�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:1'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>8:00 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Coffee and Pastries<�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:2'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>8:30 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Daniel Lewis, Harvard University<�br> <�span class=SpellE>Eben<�/span> Lazarus, Harvard University<�br> James H. Stock, Harvard University and NBER<�br> Mark W. Watson, Princeton University and NBER<�br> <�/span><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><�a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Lazarus_Lewis_Stock_Watson.pdf"><�i>HAR Inference: Kernel Choice, Size Distortions, and Power Loss <�/i><�/a><�/span><�i><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�/span><�/i><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:3'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>9:15 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Lawrence DW. Schmidt, University of Chicago<�br> <�span class=SpellE>Yinchu<�/span> Zhu, University of California at San Diego<�br> <�/span><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><�a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Schmidt_Zhu.pdf"><�i>Quantile <�span class=SpellE>Spacings<�/span>: A Simple Method for the Joint Estimation of Multiple Quantiles Without Crossing <�/i><�/a><�/span><�i><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�/span><�/i><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:4'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>10:00 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Break<�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:5'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>10:30 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Matteo <�span class=SpellE>Barigozzi<�/span>, London School of Economics and Political Science<�br> Marco Lippi, <�span class=SpellE>Universit<�span style='font-family:"Microsoft Himalaya"'>/<�/span>span<�/span>&gt; di Roma, La Sapienza<�br> Matteo <�span class=SpellE>Luciani<�/span>, Federal Reserve Board of Governors<�br> <�/span><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><�a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Barigozzi_Lippi_Luciani.pdf"><�i>Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Models for Large Datasets <�/i><�/a><�/span><�i><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�/span><�/i><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:6'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>11:15 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span class=SpellE><�span style='font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Davide<�/span><�/span><�span style='font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language:EN-US'> <�span class=SpellE>Pettenuzzo<�/span>, Brandeis University<�br> Gary Koop, University of Strathclyde<�br> Dimitris <�span class=SpellE>Korobilis<�/span>, University of Glasgow, Adam Smith Business School<�br> <�/span><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><�a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Pettenuzzo.pdf"><�i>Bayesian Compressed Vector <�span class=SpellE>Autoregressions<�/span> <�/i><�/a><�/span><�i><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�/span><�/i><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:7'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>12:00 n<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Lunch and Adjourn<�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:8'> <�td width=674 colspan=2 style='width:505.5pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Wednesday, July 13<�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:9'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>8:00 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Coffee and Pastries<�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:10'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>8:30 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Sydney C. <�span class=SpellE>Ludvigson<�/span>, New York University and NBER<�br> Sai Ma, New York University<�br> Serena Ng, Columbia University and NBER<�br> <�/span><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><�a href="http://www.sydneyludvigson.com/s/ucc.pdf"><�i>Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response? <�/i><�/a><�/span><�i><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�/span><�/i><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:11'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>9:15 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Andrea <�span class=SpellE>Carriero<�/span>, Queen Mary University of London<�br> Todd Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland<�br> Massimiliano <�span class=SpellE>Marcellino<�/span>, <�/span><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Bocconi University<�/span><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�br> <�/span><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><�a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Carriero_Clark_Marcellino.pdf"><�i>Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty and its Impact on the Economy <�/i><�/a><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�/span><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:12'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>10:00 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Break<�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:13'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>10:30 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Mario <�span class=SpellE>Forni<�/span>, <�span class=SpellE>Universita<�/span> di Modena<�br> Luca <�span class=SpellE>Gambetti<�/span>, <�span class=SpellE>Universitat<�/span> <�span class=SpellE>Autonoma<�/span> de Barcelona<�br> Luca Sala, Bocconi University<�br> <�/span><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><�a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Forni_Gambetti_Sala.pdf"><�i>VAR Information and the Empirical Validation of DSGE Models <�/i><�/a><�/span><�i><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�/span><�/i><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:14'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>11:15 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Geert <�span class=SpellE>Bekaert<�/span>, Columbia University and NBER<�br> Eric <�span class=SpellE>Engstrom<�/span>, Federal Reserve Board of Governors<�br> Andrey <�span class=SpellE>Ermolov<�/span>, Fordham University<�br> <�i><�a href="Bekaert_Engstrom_Ermolov.pdf">Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates<�/a><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�/i><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:15'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>12:00 n<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Lunch and Adjourn<�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:16'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>6:00 pm<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Clambake<�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:17'> <�td width=674 colspan=2 style='width:505.5pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Thursday, July 14<�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:18'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>8:00 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Coffee and Pastries<�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:19'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>8:30 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Harrison Hong, Princeton University and NBER<�br> <�span class=SpellE>Weikai<�/span> Li, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology<�br> <�span class=SpellE>Jiangmin<�/span> Xu, Peking University<�br> <�/span><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><�a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Hong_Li_Xu.pdf"><�i>Climate Risks and Market Efficiency <�/i><�/a><�/span><�i><�span style='font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�/span><�/i><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:20'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>9:15 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Christiane J.S. <�span class=SpellE>Baumeister<�/span>, University of Notre Dame<�br> Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan<�br> <�i><�a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Baumeister_Kilian.pdf">A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices with an Application to Crude Oil<�/a><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�/i><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:21'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>10:00 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Break<�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:22'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>10:30 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Martin M. <�span class=SpellE>Andreasen<�/span>, Aarhus University<�br> Jens Christensen, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco<�br> Kevin Cook, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco<�br> Simon Riddell, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco<�br> <�/span><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><�a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Andreasen_Christensen_Cook_Riddell.pdf"><�i>The TIPS Liquidity Premium <�/i><�/a><�/span><�i><�span style='font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�/span><�/i><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:23'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>11:15 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Eric T. Swanson, University of California at Irvine and NBER<�br> <�/span><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><�a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Swanson.pdf"><�i>Measuring the Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance and Asset Purchases on Financial Markets <�/i><�/a><�/span><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:24'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>12:00 n<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Lunch and Adjourn<�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:25'> <�td width=674 colspan=2 style='width:505.5pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Friday, July 15<�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:26'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>8:00 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Coffee and Pastries<�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:27'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>8:30 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span class=SpellE><�span style='font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Emre<�/span><�/span><�span style='font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language:EN-US'> <�span class=SpellE>Yoldas<�/span>, Federal Reserve Board<�br> <�span class=SpellE>Zeynep<�/span> <�span class=SpellE>Senyuz<�/span>, Federal Reserve Board<�br> <�/span><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><�a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Yoldas_Senyuz.pdf"><�i>Financial Stress and Equilibrium Dynamics in Money Markets <�/i><�/a><�/span><�i><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�/span><�/i><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:28'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>9:15 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Torben G. Andersen, Northwestern University and NBER<�br> Nicola <�span class=SpellE>Fusari<�/span>, Johns Hopkins University<�br> Viktor <�span class=SpellE>Todorov<�/span>, Northwestern University<�br> <�/span><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><�a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Andersen_Fusari_Todorov.pdf"><�i>The Pricing of Tail Risk and the Equity Premium: Evidence from International Option Markets <�/i><�/a><�/span><�i><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language: EN-US'><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�/span><�/i><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:29'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>10:00 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Break<�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:30'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>10:30 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Mathias S. <�span class=SpellE>Kruttli<�/span>, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System<�br> <�i><�a href="Kruttli.pdf">From Which Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models Can Investors Profit? Evidence from Model-Based Priors<�/a><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�/i><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:31'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>11:15 am<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Simone <�span class=SpellE>Manganelli<�/span>, European Central Bank<�br> <�/span><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><�a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2016/SI2016/EFFE/Manganelli.pdf"><�i>Asset Allocation with Judgment <�/i><�/a><�/span><�i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <�![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><�br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <�![endif]><�/span><�/i><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�tr style='mso-yfti-irow:32;mso-yfti-lastrow:yes'> <�td width=82 valign=top style='width:.85in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>12:00 n<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�td width=590 style='width:6.15in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Lunch and Adjourn<�o:p><�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/td> <�/tr> <�/table> <�p class=MsoNormal><�span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><�o:p>&nbsp;<�/o:p><�/span><�/p> <�/div> <�/body> <�/html>