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NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC.

SI 2015 Development of the American Economy

Karen Clay, Trevon Logan, and Charles W. Calomiris, Organizers

July 6-9, 2015

NBER, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge

PROGRAM

 

Monday, July 06


8:15 am


Shuttle bus from the Royal Sonesta Hotel


8:30 am


Coffee and pastries




The Great Depression


9:00 am


Price V. Fishback, University of Arizona and NBER
Kenneth A. Snowden, University of North Carolina at Greensboro and NBER
Sebastián Fleitas, University of Arizona
Why Does Recovery from Mortgage Credit Crises Take So Long? Institutional Causes of Delay in Liquidation of Troubled Building and Loans during the Great Depression


10:00 am


Break


10:15 am


Andrew Jalil, Occidental College
Gisela Rua, Federal Reserve Board
Inflation Expectations and Recovery from the Depression in 1933: Evidence from the Narrative Record


11:15 am


Felipe Benguria, University of Kentucky
The Determinants of U.S. Wage Inequality During the Great Depression


12:15 pm


Lunch




Health


1:15 pm


Francisca Antman, University of Colorado
For Want of a Cup: The Rise of Tea in England and the Impact of Water Quality on Economic Development


2:15 pm


Break


2:30 pm


Walker Hanlon, University of California at Los Angeles and NBER
Pollution and Mortality in the 19th Century


3:30 pm


Dora Costa, University of California at Los Angeles and NBER
Matthew E. Kahn, University of California at Los Angeles and NBER
Death and the Media: Asymmetries in Infectious Disease Reporting During the Health Transition


4:30 pm


Adjourn


4:45 pm


Shuttle bus to the Royal Sonesta Hotel


Tuesday, July 07


8:15 am


Shuttle bus from the Royal Sonesta Hotel


8:30 am


Coffee and pastries




Demography and Health


9:00 am


Jeanne Lafortune, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
Murat Iyigun, University of Colorado
Why Wait? A Century of Education, Marriage Timing and Gender Roles


10:00 am


Break


10:15 am


Richard H. Steckel, Ohio State University and NBER
Garrett Senney, The Ohio State University
Developmental Origins of Cardiovascular Disease: Understanding High Mortality Rates in the American South


11:15 am


Abstracts I

Carlos Hernandez, University of California at Los Angeles
What Doesn't Kill You Makes You Stronger: How Breweries Survived Prohibition

Claudia Goldin, Harvard University and NBER
Women Working Longer: Increased Participation Rates of Older Women and the Role of Cohorts Effects

Ellora Derenoncourt, Harvard University
Atlantic Slavery's Impact on British Economic Development

Fabrizio Spargoli, Rotterdam School of Management and Philipp Ager, University of Southern Denmark
Bank Deregulation, Competition, and Economic Growth: The US Free Banking Experience

Christoffer Koch, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Gary Richardson, University of California at Irvine  and NBER; Patrick Van Horn, Southwestern University
Bank Size and Leverage over the Business Cycle: Comparative Evidence from the Great Depression and the Great Recession

John Bluedorn, International Monetary Fund and Haelim M. Park, Department of the Treasury
Stopping Contagion with Bailouts: Micro-Evidence from Pennsylvania Bank Networks during the Panic of 1884

Lauren Cohen and Christopher Malloy, Harvard University and NBER; and Quoc Nguyen, University of Illinois Chicago
The Random Origins of Unions

Marcella Alsan, Standford University and NBER; Marianne H. Wanamaker, University of Tennessee and NBER
Tuskegee: The Role of Beliefs in Health Care Utilization and Outcomes


12:15 pm


Lunch


Banking/Macro


1:15 pm


Òscar Jordà, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Moritz HP. Schularick, University of Bonn
Alan M. Taylor, University of California at Davis and NBER
The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles


2:15 pm


Break


2:30 pm


Eugene N. White, Rutgers University and NBER
How to Prevent a Banking Panic: the Barings Crisis of 1890


3:30 pm


Charles W. Calomiris, Columbia University and NBER
Matthew S. Jaremski, Colgate University and NBER
Haelim M. Park, Department of the Treasury
Gary Richardson, University of California at Irvine and NBER
Liquidity Risk, Bank Networks, and the Value of Joining the Fed


4:30 pm


Adjourn


4:45 pm


Shuttle bus to the Royal Sonesta Hotel


Wednesday, July 08


8:15 am


Shuttle bus from the Royal Sonesta Hotel


8:30 am


Coffee and pastries




Trade and Institutions


9:00 am


Douglas A. Irwin, Dartmouth College and NBER
Tariff Incidence: Evidence from U.S. Sugar Duties, 1890-1930


10:00 am


Break


10:15 am


James R. Brown, Iowa State University
J. Anthony Cookson, University of Colorado
Rawley Z. Heimer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Law and Finance Matter: Lessons from Externally Imposed Courts


11:15 am


Abstracts II

Michela Giorcelli, Stanford University
The Effects of Management and Technology Diffusion on Firm Productivity: Evidence from the US Marshall Plan in Italy

Nathan Lane, IIES Stockholm
Manufacturing Revolutions: Industrialization and the Developmental State in South Korea

Davide Cantoni, University of Munich; Jeremiah Dittmar, London School of Economics;  Noam Yuchtman, University of California at Berkeley and NBER
The Labor Demand Shock from Hell: The Protestant Reformation, Secular Human Capital Investments, and the Rise of State Bureaucracy in Early Modern Germany

Richard B. Baker, Boston University
Finding the Fat: The Relative Impact of Budget Fluctuations on African-American Schools

Richard Hornbeck, Harvard University and NBER
Research in Progress

Richard C. Sutch, University of California at Riverside and NBER
Philanthropic Endeavors, Saving Behavior, and Bourgeois Virtues

Jeremiah Dittmar, London School of Economics; Suresh Naidu, Columbia University and NBER
Contested Property: Fugitive Slaves in the Antebellum U.S. South

David Jacks, Simon Fraser University and NBER
Prohibition: The Long and the Short of It

Karen Clay Carnegie Mellon University and NBER, Josh Lewis, University of Montreal, and Edson Severnini, Carnegie Mellon University
Pollution, Infectious Disease, and Infant Mortality: Evidence from the 1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic


12:15 pm


Lunch




Labor, Education, and Assimilation


1:15 pm


Ahmed Rahman, U.S. Naval Academy
Darrell J. Glaser, United States Naval Academy
Human Capital on the High Seas - Job Mobility and Returns to Technical Skill During Industrialization


2:15 pm


Break


2:30 pm


Emanuela Cardia, University of Montreal
Andriana Bellou, University of Montreal
Baby-Boom, Baby-Bust and the Great Depression


3:30 pm


Ran Abramitzky, Stanford University and NBER
Leah Platt Boustan, University of California at Los Angeles and NBER
Katherine Eriksson, California Polytechnic State University and NBER
Cultural Assimilation during the Age of Mass Migration


4:30 pm


Adjourn


4:45 pm


Shuttle bus to the Royal Sonesta Hotel


6:00 pm


Clambake at the Royal Sonesta Hotel


Thursday, July 09


8:15 am


Shuttle bus from the Royal Sonesta Hotel


8:30 am


Coffee and pastries




Complete-Count Census Data


9:00 am


James Feigenbaum, Harvard University
Automated Census Record Linking: A Machine Learning Approach


10:00 am


Break


10:15 am


Nicolas L. Ziebarth, University of Iowa and NBER
The Ins and Outs of City Population Growth


11:15 am


Complete-Count Abstracts

Chris Boone, Columbia University; Laurence Wilse-Samson, Columbia University
Modernization, Rural Migration, and Market Withdrawal: Evidence from the Great Depression

Daniel K. Fetter, Wellesley College and NBER; Lee Lockwood; Northwestern University and NBER
The Intergenerational Incidence of Government Old Age Support

Esther Redmount, Colorado College
Absenteeism, Productivity and Earnings:  Evidence  from 19th Century Massachusetts Payrolls

Chiaki Moriguchi, Hitotsubashi University; John Parman, College of William and Mary and NBER
Adoption and Adult Outcomes in the Early 20th Century

Joshua Rosenbloom, University of Kansas and NBER; Brandon Dupont, Western Washington University
The Impact of the Civil War on Southern Wealth Mobility

Katie R. Genadek, University of Minnesota; Margaret L. Charleroy, University of Minnesota
The Effect of Early and Later-Life Conditions on Women’s Participation in the Social Science and STEM Occupations in Early Twentieth-Century America

Peter Koudijs, Stanford University and NBER; Laura Salisbury, York University and NBER
Law and Marriage: Insights into the Economics of Marriage from Changes in Marital Property Laws, 1840-1850

Miguel Morin, University of Cambridge
The Labor Market Consequences Of Electricity Adoption: Concrete Evidence From The Great Depression

Nathaniel Hilger, Brown University and NBER
The Great Escape: Intergenerational Mobility Since 1940

Susan Carter, University of California at Riverside
"Confined to Chinatowns?"  A New Look at Chinese American Geographic Redistribution During the Exclusion Era, 1882-1943  (background note)


12:15 pm


Lunch with representatives from the Minnesota Population Center and adjourn