ÿþ<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns:st1="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"> <head> <meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=unicode"> <meta name=ProgId content=Word.Document> <meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 14"> <meta name=Originator content="Microsoft Word 14"> <link rel=File-List href="DAEs13prg_files/filelist.xml"> <title>Authors, please upload your paper here</title> <o:SmartTagType namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="time"/> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:DocumentProperties> <o:Author>confer</o:Author> <o:Template>Normal</o:Template> <o:LastAuthor>confer</o:LastAuthor> <o:Revision>6</o:Revision> <o:TotalTime>19</o:TotalTime> <o:LastPrinted>2011-01-20T15:31:00Z</o:LastPrinted> <o:Created>2013-01-25T17:08:00Z</o:Created> <o:LastSaved>2013-03-02T15:38:00Z</o:LastSaved> <o:Pages>1</o:Pages> <o:Words>242</o:Words> <o:Characters>1829</o:Characters> <o:Company>nber</o:Company> <o:Lines>15</o:Lines> <o:Paragraphs>4</o:Paragraphs> <o:CharactersWithSpaces>2067</o:CharactersWithSpaces> <o:Version>14.00</o:Version> </o:DocumentProperties> </xml><![endif]--> <link rel=themeData href="DAEs13prg_files/themedata.thmx"> <link rel=colorSchemeMapping href="DAEs13prg_files/colorschememapping.xml"> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:Zoom>BestFit</w:Zoom> <w:SpellingState>Clean</w:SpellingState> <w:GrammarState>Clean</w:GrammarState> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:DrawingGridHorizontalSpacing>6 pt</w:DrawingGridHorizontalSpacing> <w:DisplayHorizontalDrawingGridEvery>2</w:DisplayHorizontalDrawingGridEvery> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> <w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/> <w:DontVertAlignCellWithSp/> <w:DontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/> <w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/> <w:Word11KerningPairs/> <w:CachedColBalance/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="&#45;-"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true" DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99" LatentStyleCount="267"> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><object classid="clsid:38481807-CA0E-42D2-BF39-B33AF135CC4D" id=ieooui></object> <style> st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } </style> <![endif]--> <style> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:Tahoma; panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:swiss; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-520081665 -1073717157 41 0 66047 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} h2 {mso-style-priority:9; mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-link:"Heading 2 Char"; mso-margin-top-alt:auto; margin-right:0in; mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:0in; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; mso-outline-level:2; font-size:18.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;} a:link, span.MsoHyperlink {mso-style-priority:99; color:blue; text-decoration:underline; text-underline:single;} a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed {mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; color:purple; mso-themecolor:followedhyperlink; text-decoration:underline; text-underline:single;} p.MsoAcetate, li.MsoAcetate, div.MsoAcetate {mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-link:"Balloon Text Char"; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:8.0pt; font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} span.Heading2Char {mso-style-name:"Heading 2 Char"; mso-style-priority:9; mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-locked:yes; mso-style-link:"Heading 2"; mso-ansi-font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:13.0pt; font-family:"Cambria","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font:major-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:major-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria; mso-hansi-theme-font:major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:major-bidi; color:#4F81BD; mso-themecolor:accent1; font-weight:bold;} span.BalloonTextChar {mso-style-name:"Balloon Text Char"; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-locked:yes; mso-style-link:"Balloon Text"; mso-ansi-font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:8.0pt; font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family:Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family:Tahoma;} span.SpellE {mso-style-name:""; mso-spl-e:yes;} .MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; font-size:10.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;} @page WordSection1 {size:11.0in 8.5in; mso-page-orientation:landscape; margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.WordSection1 {page:WordSection1;} --> </style> <!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";} table.MsoTableGrid {mso-style-name:"Table Grid"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-priority:59; mso-style-unhide:no; border:solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt:solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-border-insideh:.5pt solid windowtext; mso-border-insidev:.5pt solid windowtext; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";} </style> <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="1026"/> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:shapelayout v:ext="edit"> <o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1"/> </o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--> </head> <body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='tab-interval:.5in'> <div class=WordSection1> <table class=MsoTableGrid border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 style='margin-left:30.6pt;border-collapse:collapse;border:none;mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;mso-border-insideh:none;mso-border-insidev: none'> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:0;mso-yfti-firstrow:yes'> <td width=685 valign=top style='width:513.9pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>Authors, please upload your paper <a href="http://www.nber.org/confsubmit/backend/form?id=DAEs13">here</a></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:1'> <td width=685 valign=top style='width:513.9pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:2'> <td width=685 valign=top style='width:513.9pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC.<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:3'> <td width=685 valign=top style='width:513.9pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:4'> <td width=685 valign=top style='width:513.9pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Development of the American Economy Program Meeting<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:5'> <td width=685 valign=top style='width:513.9pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Daniel Fetter and Eric Hilt, Organizers<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:6'> <td width=685 valign=top style='width:513.9pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:7'> <td width=685 valign=top style='width:513.9pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>March 2, 2013<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:8'> <td width=685 valign=top style='width:513.9pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:9'> <td width=685 valign=top style='width:513.9pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>NBER<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:10'> <td width=685 valign=top style='width:513.9pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>1050 Massachusetts Avenue<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:11'> <td width=685 valign=top style='width:513.9pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Cambridge, Massachusetts<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:12'> <td width=685 valign=top style='width:513.9pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:13;mso-yfti-lastrow:yes'> <td width=685 valign=top style='width:513.9pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><u><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>PROGRAM<o:p></o:p></span></u></p> </td> </tr> </table> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='margin-bottom:12.0pt;text-align:center'><u><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p><span style='text-decoration:none'>&nbsp;</span></o:p></span></u></p> <table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellpadding=0 width=729 style='width:546.75pt; mso-cellspacing:1.5pt;margin-left:33.75pt;mso-yfti-tbllook:1184;mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:0;mso-yfti-firstrow:yes'> <td width=725 colspan=2 valign=top style='width:543.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Friday, March 1, 2013<br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:1'> <td width=113 valign=top style='width:84.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><st1:time Hour="18" Minute="30" w:st="on"><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>6:30 pm</span></st1:time><span style='font-size: 11.0pt'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=610 valign=top style='width:457.8pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Dinner<br> Bambara Restaurant<br> 25 Edwin H. Land Boulevard, Cambridge, MA <br> (Across the street from the Royal Sonesta Hotel)<br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:2'> <td width=725 colspan=2 valign=top style='width:543.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Saturday, March 2, 2013 <br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:3'> <td width=113 valign=top style='width:84.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>8:00 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>8:20 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=610 valign=top style='width:457.8pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Shuttle Van Departs the Royal <span class=SpellE>Sonesta</span> for the NBER<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Shuttle Van Departs the Royal Sonesta for the NBER<br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:4'> <td width=113 valign=top style='width:84.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>8:30 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=610 valign=top style='width:457.8pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Continental Breakfast<br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:5'> <td width=113 valign=top style='width:84.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>9:00 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=610 valign=top style='width:457.8pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Hoyt <span class=SpellE>Bleakley</span>, University of Chicago and NBER<br> Joseph <span class=SpellE>Ferrie</span>, Northwestern University and NBER<br> <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><a href="Bleakley_Ferrie.pdf">Land Openings on the Georgia Frontier and the <span class=SpellE>Coase</span> Theorem in the Short-</a><span class=MsoHyperlink><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span class=MsoHyperlink><i style='mso-bidi-font-style: normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><a href="Bleakley_Ferrie.pdf"><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>and Long-Run</a></span></i></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:6'> <td width=113 valign=top style='width:84.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>10:00 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=610 valign=top style='width:457.8pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Break<br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:7'> <td width=113 valign=top style='width:84.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>10:15 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=610 valign=top style='width:457.8pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Melissa Dell, Harvard University and NBER<br> <i><a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2013/DAEs13/Dell.pdf">Path Dependence in Development: Evidence from the Mexican Revolution</a></i><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:8'> <td width=113 valign=top style='width:84.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>11:15 am<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=610 valign=top style='width:457.8pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Leticia Arroyo Abad, Middlebury College<br> Noel Maurer, Harvard University and NBER<br> <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><a href="Arroyo_Abad_Maurer.pdf">Fiscal Receivership and Chapter Cities 1904-1929</a></i><br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:9'> <td width=113 valign=top style='width:84.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>12:15 pm<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=610 valign=top style='width:457.8pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Lunch<br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:10'> <td width=113 valign=top style='width:84.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>1:00 pm<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=610 valign=top style='width:457.8pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Matthew <span class=SpellE>Jaremski</span>, Colgate University and NBER<br> Peter Rousseau, Vanderbilt University and NBER<br> <i><a href="http://www.nber.org/confer/2013/DAEs13/Jaremski_Rousseau.pdf">The Rise of Commercial Bank Deposits in the United States</a></i><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:11'> <td width=113 valign=top style='width:84.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>2:00 pm<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=610 valign=top style='width:457.8pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Break<br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:12'> <td width=113 valign=top style='width:84.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>2:15 pm<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=610 valign=top style='width:457.8pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Marc <span class=SpellE>Weidenmier</span>, Claremont McKenna College and NBER<br> Joseph Davis, The Vanguard Group<br> Ryan Shaffer, Claremont McKenna College <br> <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>America s First Great Moderation<br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]></i><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:13'> <td width=113 valign=top style='width:84.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>3:15 pm<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=610 valign=top style='width:457.8pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Break<br style='mso-special-character: line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:14'> <td width=113 valign=top style='width:84.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>3:30 pm<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=610 valign=top style='width:457.8pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Charles <span class=SpellE>Calomiris</span>, Columbia University and NBER<br> Jonathan Pritchett, Tulane University<br> <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><a href="Calomiris_Pritchett.pdf">Betting on Secession: Quantifying Political Events Surrounding Slavery</a><span class=MsoHyperlink><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span class=MsoHyperlink><i style='mso-bidi-font-style: normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><a href="Calomiris_Pritchett.pdf"><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>and the Civil War</a></span></i></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:15'> <td width=113 valign=top style='width:84.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>4:30 pm<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=610 valign=top style='width:457.8pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Adjourn<br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style='mso-special-character:line-break'> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:16;mso-yfti-lastrow:yes'> <td width=113 valign=top style='width:84.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>3/1/13<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> </td> <td width=610 valign=top style='width:457.8pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> </table> <p class=MsoNormal style='tab-stops:1.0in'><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> </div> </body> </html>