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NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC.

Economics of Commodity Markets

Kenneth Singleton and Wei Xiong, Organizers

October 25-26, 2013

Royal Sonesta Hotel
40 Edwin H. Land Boulevard
Cambridge, MA

PROGRAM

 

Friday, October 25:  Ballroom B, West Tower


Market Manipulation


10:30 am


Suman Banerjee, Nanyang Business School
Ravi Jagannathan, Northwestern University and NBER
Destabilizing Commodity Market Speculation

Discussant:  Ailsa Roell, Columbia University




John Birge, University of Chicago
Ali Hortacsu, University of Chicago and NBER
Ignacia Mercadal, University of Chicago
Michael Pavlin, Wilfrid Laurier University
The Role of Financial Players in Electricity Markets: An Empirical Analysis of MISO

Discussant:  Frank Wolak, Stanford University and NBER


12:10 pm


Lunch


Storage and Exploration


1:00 pm


Eugenio Bobenrieth, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
Juan Bobenrieth, Universidad del Bío-Bío
Brian Wright, University of California at Berkeley
Bubble Troubles? Rational Storage, Mean Reversion and Runs in Commodity Prices

Discussant:  Jose Scheinkman, Columbia University and NBER




Alexander David, University of Calgary
Exploration Activity, Long Run Decisions, and Roll Returns in Energy Futures

Discussant: Hui Chen, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER


2:40 pm


Break


Futures Market Trading


3:10 pm


Wenjin Kang, National University of Singapore
K. Geert Rouwenhorst, Yale University
Ke Tang, Renmin University of China
The Role of Hedgers and Speculators in Liquidity Provision to Commodity Futures Markets

Discussant:  Ing-haw Cheng, Dartmouth College


4:00 pm


Break


4:20 pm


Panel Discussion
Shale Energy Boom and the U.S. and World Economies
James D. Hamilton, University of California at San Diego and NBER
Thomas Helbling, International Monetary Fund
Richard Schmalensee, Massachusetts Institute of Technology


5:50 pm


Adjourn


6:30 pm


Group Dinner
Bambara Restaurant
25 Edwin H. Land Blvd., Cambridge
(across the street from the Royal Sonesta Hotel)


Saturday, October 26:  Riverfront Room, East Tower


8:00 am


Continental Breakfast


Commodities and Macroeconomy


8:30 am


Yu-Chin Chen, University of Washington
Dongwon Lee, University of California at Riverside
What Makes a Commodity Currency?

Discussant:  Karen Lewis, University of Pennsylvania and NBER




Domenico Ferraro, Duke University
Pietro Peretto, Duke University
Commodity Price, Long-Run Growth and Fiscal Vulnerability

Discussant:  Samya Beidas-Strom, International Monetary Fund


10:10 am


Break


Commodity Risk Premia


10:40 am


Martijn Boons, Tilburg University
Frans de Roon, Tilburg University
Marta Szymanowska, Erasmus University
The Stock Market Price of Commodity Risk

Discussant:  Peter Christoffersen, University of Toronto




Gurdip Bakshi, University of Maryland
Xiaohui Gao, University of Maryland
Alberto Rossi, University of Maryland
A Better Specified Asset Pricing Model to Explain the Cross-section and Time-Series of Commodity Returns

Discussant:  Hendrik Bessembinder, University of Utah


12:20 pm


Lunch


Carry Trades


1:00 pm


Anh Le, University of North Carolina
Haoxiang Zhu, MIT
Risk Premia in Gold Lease Rates

Discussant:  Lars Lochstoer, Columbia University




Robert Ready, University of Rochester
Nikolai Roussanov, University of Pennsylvania and NBER
Colin Ward, University of Pennsylvania
Commodity Trade and the Carry Trade: A Tale of Two Countries

Discussant:  Bryan Routledge, Carnegie Mellon University


2:40 pm


Adjourn





FORMAT:
Each paper has 50 minutes on the program with 20 minutes allocated to authors for presentation, 15 minutes to discussants, and 15 minutes to Q&As.